But on Saturday night in Butler, Pennsylvania, the metaphor became reality when an would-be assassin’s bullet left Donald Trump’s right ear bloodied. By a hair’s breadth, the outcome could have been much worse: one rally attendee was killed and two seriously injured. The 20-year-old gunman was shot dead by the Secret Service.
The presidential race was upended in an instant, forcing the struggling presidential campaign to put on hold a planned sharp pivot, including a major negative ad buy for Trump’s coronation this week. The campaign quickly pulled all of its ads, and the president postponed a trip to Austin on Monday, where he was scheduled to be the headliner at an event marking the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act at the Lyndon B. Johnson Presidential Library.
Republicans, meanwhile, were quick to seize the opportunity to exploit Biden’s Trump-centric argument that the former president and his far-right supporters were a threat to “the very soul of this nation.” Trump’s allies rushed to the barriers, declaring that Democrats were inciting violence with rhetoric that portrayed Trump as the next dictator who must be stopped at all costs.
It’s a particularly paradoxical situation for Biden, because he ran for president on the premise that he could de-escalate political tensions, and he ran a successful 2020 campaign to oust Trump with a video showing the infamous Charlottesville march.
“In that moment, I realized the threat to this country was unlike anything I’d ever seen in my lifetime,” Biden said in the video.
The media is now saturated with the instantly iconic photo of an injured Trump being evacuated from the rally stage, fist raised, American flags flying against a bright blue sky behind him. Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita shared the photo on social media, adding, “This is the carnage of Iwo Jima.”
The image is sure to be a talking point at the Republican National Convention, which begins here on Monday. And it dovetails with the former president’s portrayal of himself as the victim of a “weaponized” government. After his federal indictment last summer, Trump declared at a rally: “In the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you. And I’m just getting in their way.”
History suggests that Trump will boost public approval ratings, at least temporarily. Ronald Reagan’s approval rating, which had been low before the assassination attempt in March 1981, soared 11 percentage points in the days after. “Presidential approval ratings often rise in times of national crisis, but Reagan’s surge is the sharpest of any on record,” The Washington Post wrote at the time.
Meanwhile, the timing couldn’t be worse for Biden, who would be forced to rethink his strategy against Trump.
Biden’s dismal performance in last month’s debate deepened concerns about his frailty and advanced age, putting his own presidential nomination in jeopardy among Democrats who believe he will destroy the entire party in November’s presidential election.
All signs point to Biden’s path to reelection narrowing. A poor performance at the top of his field could jeopardize his party’s chances of retaining its Senate majority and regaining control of the House of Representatives, creating a situation in which Trump’s party could seize all of the power in Washington if he returns to power.
The post-2024 calculations taking place within both parties reflect a disturbing trend in today’s political environment: A significant number of people now believe that violence is justified if it achieves political goals.
An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll conducted in April found that one in five American adults agreed that the United States may need to resort to violence to get the country back on track. Other surveys have found similar results. The sentiment that the ends justify the means was also evident in the January 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters seeking to overturn the results of the election that ousted him from office.
A lot will be learned in the coming days about why a young man with an assault rifle was on a rooftop within striking distance of a presidential candidate. But in some ways, none of it may matter: The narrative is already set, and politics doesn’t wait for the facts.
