That’s an obvious point. Candidates from the major parties fear Kennedy will turn away the voters they need to win a majority in the state. After all, each won the presidency by narrow margins in a small number of states, so the prospect of swing states tipping the other way because of Kennedy is not particularly appealing.
New data from Fox News’ acclaimed polling division provides insight into just how real that threat is. verdict?
This poll was conducted in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, four states that switched from supporting Trump in 2016 to supporting Biden in 2020 (Michigan’s results weren’t as close last time, but that aside ) Implemented in all states except Georgia. With Trump in the lead, the results of head-to-head contests between candidates from the major parties suggest that the races are functionally even. What if we added Kennedy to the mix? The results for every state except Georgia show that race is functionally connected.
You can see the shifts below. The outside of each graph shows the poll results if Biden and Trump were the only choices. His three columns in the middle show the results if Kennedy is participating. The top of each column for Biden and Trump in the center shows the percentage point decline the candidates experience when thrown into the larger field.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin go from a tie to a situation where one candidate has a two-point lead when the field is wide, but given the margin of error, “two-point lead” and “tie” are functional. It’s the same thing. In other words, there is no obvious effect on the results shown in the polls. However, it is uncertain that candidates from both major parties want to shape up, although there could be some repercussions on election day.
The Fox News poll asked about each state’s full participation before the head-to-head contest. By asking both questions, we were able to analyze direct support for Trump and Biden by comparing how the same respondents responded to questions across all categories.
In each state, about 9 out of 10 people who chose either Trump or Biden in a direct question chose that candidate when presented with the full list. But about 5 to 10 percent of the direct support for these candidates came from people who, given a choice, chose Mr. Kennedy.
In Michigan, for example, one in 10 respondents who chose Trump in a head-to-head match would have chosen Kennedy if given a more complete field. If Kennedy didn’t vote in Michigan, that would be better news for the former president. Unfortunately for Trump, he did.
These findings can be summarized accurately or poorly. Kennedy’s presence on the ballot in battleground states would draw voters from candidates from both major parties. But the effect of doing so is unclear, and it is not clear whether Mr. Kennedy would change the winner in any state from Mr. Trump to Mr. Biden or vice versa. but also? Might be so.
For the major political parties’ campaigns, the conclusion is simpler. Kennedy’s candidacy constitutes the worst kind of wrench in the establishment, and the outcome is uncertain.
