When pollsters recently asked voters what they thought about the upcoming election, they also heard words for stinking trash, personal regrets, and even a meteor headed for Earth.
odor. It’s embarrassing. It’s fate.
“It’s terrible,” said Joe Radack, 61, a car and coffee company owner in Spokane, Wash., when I called him last week. He added words like “anxiety” and “stress” just in case.
“I wish they could get younger people together,” he said with a sigh. “Or if there was someone who could bring people together.”
I’m a new host of this newsletter, but I get it. The rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump feels inherently tired, or perhaps inescapably depressing. The primaries ended quickly. The campaign trail is quiet. Neither man is generally popular. More Americans think this contest will do more harm than good for the country, with a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College finding that 30 percent of registered voters feel fearful or anxious. answered.
Election fears are real and bipartisan, but Republicans seem to be seeing things a little more cheerfully than Democrats. No matter your politics, you may be tempted to ignore this presidential election completely.
But today, despite the fact that it’s April 1st, I’m here to make a case for the 2024 election. I think this election will be one of the most fascinating, revealing and far-reaching in recent history. The candidates we know better than the voters who choose them.
This is not a rerun of Nick at Night. This is a prime-time sequel with real-world consequences.
For 2024
I admit it wasn’t easy to find people willing to encourage optimism about 2024.
Some people laughed at me. The others rolled their eyes. Even Marianne Williamson, a leading advocate of positive thinking and a leading presidential candidate who actually returned to the 2024 campaign after dropping out, described the campaign in dark terms.
“There’s no doubt that people are disgusted,” she told me.
But Amy Walter, editor-in-chief and publisher of the enlightened, nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said there was more to this election than meets the eye.
“This election is like a frozen pond, and it looks boring on the surface, but there’s a lot going on underneath,” Walter said. “What’s happening underneath is the real story.”
stakes
To be sure, both Biden and Trump are older, white men, and either former or current presidents. But they are surprisingly different candidates, and this race is not a personality or beauty contest.
Both men have been clear about who they are, what they want to do, and how deeply divided their opinions will be in a second term.
An indicted former president who wants to consolidate his power, punish his enemies and transform American life is challenging a veteran incumbent who claims he is the last bastion of democracy. It was a clash in an abnormal situation.
Mr. Biden is an internationalist and institutionalist who will spend his second term aiming to complete the unfinished business of his first term. Mr. Trump is an iconoclast who delights in violating boundaries, seeking to overturn his 2020 election loss and will use his third term to rethink government in search of retribution.
Whatever issue you care about most – abortion rights, democracy, taxes, immigration, the economy, etc. – will be shaped by the outcome.
Additionally, Trump is the only person to run for president while facing four criminal charges. Aside from the inherent drama of a campaign, his trial adds extraordinary suspense, turning his quest for a second term into a race against the clock.
voters
What we know about Biden and Trump means this election is unlikely to lead to new revelations about the candidates and is more likely to be swayed by voter sentiment and attitudes. ing. That means voters and the issues they care about are more important than ever, and I want to get out there and hear all about it.
Strategists in both major parties are grappling with how to reach voters they’ve taken for granted or ignored.
Our polling shows Democrats are concerned about young voters. Young voters are the least likely of any age group to express feelings of anticipation or excitement about elections. President Trump and the Republican Party are working to win over black and Latino voters, especially men, who are well aware that even the slightest change in battleground states can swing the election.
Even in areas that seem calcified, voters are already making their voices heard by exposing each candidate’s weaknesses.
Nikki Haley’s performance in the primaries showed that a significant portion of the Republican Party is uncomfortable with Trump. And many Democratic primary voters chose “irresponsible” over Biden to express their dissatisfaction with Biden’s support for Israel in the Gaza war, and the administration has spoken to Arab American voters and officials were forced to be dispatched to more directly acknowledge concerns. We haven’t satisfied them yet.
Both parties are also nervously watching third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and working hard to mobilize their core supporters.
And just because they feel so bad about an election doesn’t mean voters will stay home. Political scientists know that disgust motivates voters as much as loyalty. The first season of Biden vs. Trump in 2020 had the highest turnout of any presidential election in over 100 years, but high turnout in subsequent midterm and special elections suggests that this pattern will continue this year. This does not indicate that it will not continue.
future
Last week, in a sordid interview with Maureen Dowd, Democratic strategist James Carville, 79, said the 2024 election would be the only election “in my lifetime that will be yesterday instead of tomorrow.” he declared.
This is a transitional election, likely the last for the two presidents who have run seven times.
Both candidates have kept much lighter campaign schedules compared to previous presidential elections, in part due to their competing commitments (Biden has to take office as president; This may be due to Mr. Trump’s frequent court appearances), and it may also reflect the reality that they are older.
This dynamic gives ample room for agents to test their skills and messages, making this race a perfect opportunity to see what direction both sides, and the country, will take. It also introduces new supporting characters who could someday play lead roles.
Democrats are spotlighting rising star governors like Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Wes Moore of Maryland, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. right. There are also influential progressives like Representative Ro Khanna of California and Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia.
Among Republicans, Trump has a long list of potential vice presidential candidates and other party stars. Among them are Republicans like Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida who are trying to walk a bit of a fine line, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio and Rep. Elyse Stefanik of New York. That includes Republicans who have been made to resemble his image, like Congressman.
Back-ballot races can sometimes get lost in the fight for the top of the ticket, but I don’t think that will happen this year. We pay close attention to Senate and House battles, as well as gubernatorial races and other races, to see how candidates define themselves and their parties, and the thorny issues voters care about most. You will be able to see how they deal with it.
And as it turns out, this race has the energy of an elimination round. Despite their advanced age, each candidate hopes to defeat the other for good.
Even doubly haters can take some comfort in knowing that one of the candidates they hate will lose. And there’s no way a match like this could happen a third time.
right?
What excites you about this election?
If you’re like me and passionate about this year’s election, I’d love to hear your thoughts.
I ask readers: What excites you about this year’s election cycle? Perhaps it’s a candidate, a local initiative, or a personal connection to one of the issues. If you would like to share your opinion, please fill out this form.
Your responses may be used in future newsletters. We will not publish any part of your answer without contacting you first.
