The hardest part about gauging the potential impact of the first presidential debate is figuring out which candidate needs it most. A month ago, the answer was clear: President Joe Biden. His team wouldn’t have pushed for an early debate if they hadn’t concluded they needed something to shake up the race before the fall.
But with one guilty verdict on 34 charges, it’s less clear which candidate needs the debate the most. Why does it matter? Because if the debate doesn’t matter to a candidate right now, that candidate will be risk-averse in the debate itself.
Speaking to smart people on both sides, both seem quietly confident in their positions heading into the summer and this debate. That was not the case for the Biden campaign just a month ago. With a slight but noticeable shift in Biden’s favor in various polls, the Biden campaign has the first evidence that former President Donald Trump’s legal problems may be affecting vote share. Combine that with recent favorable data showing a decline in violent crime in the country and this robust economy, and you can see why the Biden campaign is optimistic about reelection for the first time in over a year.
But just as Biden has gotten stronger, so has Trump. Though he took a very small (and probably significant) hit in the polls after the conviction, a massive fundraising spree last month helped him go toe-to-toe with Biden much sooner than his campaign expected. The surge in his fundraising since the conviction has been nothing short of staggering.
In fact, one could argue that structurally, Trump is in a stronger position overall in the campaign today than he was at this point in June 2020 (when he was consistently lagging Biden in the polls) or in June 2016 (remember, he was struggling to unite the Republican Party and Ted Cruz was still trying to force a second vote at the convention). Thus, compared to the past two election cycles, Trump is polling stronger, he has his party more united, and he is raising more money than he ever thought possible.
And there may be another factor at play that makes this debate seem less important than the hype suggests: There’s another debate scheduled.
In a traditional campaign, the first debate is often more entertaining and less contentious than the later ones. There are several reasons for this, but the biggest one is Might be That doesn’t matter here, because you don’t want to give a bad first impression.
And maybe that’s playing out a bit for both Biden and Trump. Both sides are hoping to defy that stereotype in this first debate. Biden will have to show an understanding of the issues and some energy for someone in his early 80s. Trump will have to show he’s not as crazy as he appears at rallies and hasn’t seemed to only think about himself since losing the 2020 election.
For either candidate, an eye-gouging, expletive-laden exchange of words would undermine either’s ability to revise perceptions.
Of course, each side is hoping above all that the post-debate conversation will be about the other candidate: The Trump campaign is hoping above all that Biden’s age will be the main talking point, while the Biden campaign is hoping above all that Trump’s erratic behavior will be the post-debate focus.
I’m not being completely naive here. The debate could play out like the first Biden-Trump matchup, if either candidate senses he’s losing and desperately needs to tempt the other into appearing weak so everyone can see. But for Biden to tempt Trump, Trump would have to give in (and maybe Trump is just too undisciplined to give in). But the risk for Biden is that if he tempts Trump on legal grounds, he could appear interested in Trump and not interested in the electorate.
And Trump has already experienced the downside of being too spiteful and domineering in his debate with Biden in the last election.
So each side is hoping above all else that the debate will expose the other’s key weaknesses, but that takes skilled debaters to accomplish that — and neither candidate has shown such agility recently.
Ironically, the best debates of Biden’s professional career all came in 2007 and 2008. And while those excellent debate performances didn’t mean anything to him in the polls because he was always treated as the underdog by much of the media (Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were essentially rated separately), they did catch the attention of future running mates and gave the Obama campaign confidence that he would be a worthy campaign partner.
Clearly, the tone and feel of the debate is in the hands of the candidates, rather than the moderators. If each candidate tries to bait the other into revealing his worst self, the debate could end up intriguing many voters, and perhaps even intriguing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But I expect it to be a more tame debate (at least for Trump). Remember, both sides think they have a shot at winning, which is important in gauging how desperate the candidates are going to be when they go into the debate.
Realistically, both candidates stand to lose more than they gain in this first debate, and it won’t be the last. schedule I expect both candidates will try to present their best selves in the debates, because with the fall still a long way away the risk of being too negative and too mean-spirited is too great.
But it’s Trump, so there’s a chance Captain Chaos might show up.
(If you know who Captain Chaos is, you’re probably hearing the words “Cannonball, Cannonball, Cannonball” echoing around in your head. If so, you’re welcome!)
Mic Drop
One of the key terms of the Biden campaign’s debate negotiations was that sponsors were prepared to “cut the mic” if the candidate exceeded his allotted speaking time. Given the chaos of the first Trump-Biden debate in 2020, it’s understandable why Biden, in particular, wanted such coercive measures.
But while Biden was clearly annoyed onstage with Trump in 2020, Trump’s behavior was so obnoxious that Biden ended up “winning” the first debate in the eyes of voters. It’s unclear why the Biden campaign would want to help Trump appear more disciplined and normal to a large national television audience, because if they had their way and Trump was forced to adhere to time limits and decided that he couldn’t be heard when the microphone was off, Trump would end up appearing more rational.
The Biden campaign is trying to portray Trump as a madman, but is asking CNN to help make him look less like a madman by calling for mic cuts.
Personally, I think one of the biggest mistakes the mainstream media made in the aftermath of the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol was trying to de-platform Trump, whether that be from mainstream social media or from mainstream legacy media. That launched Trump into his own media ecosystem, which he has since built into a more powerful propaganda tool than any of the media four years ago. Trump’s antics will fade over time, but if you wonder why so many people have locked away the craziness of his first term in their memories, it’s because he’s been rhetorically banished to another corner of the information ecosystem.
There are two ways to deal with Trump: give him more rhetorical rope or try to cancel him. Cancelling him didn’t work. So maybe we should trust the public more and let them decide if this is what they want. As I argued last week, I believe Trump’s COVID-19 behavior and disorganized leadership sealed his fate with voters.
But voters might not have ignored him if he had been edited, if he hadn’t shown his worst instincts in order to maximize his audience. In short, trust the people to figure it out. Don’t treat them like five-year-olds.
This week on NBC News’ “Chuck Toddcast,” Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt (R) and Columbus Mayor Andrew Ginther (D) join Chuck to discuss bipartisanship. Sign up to watch new episodes of “Chuck Toddcast” every Wednesday and Friday. Apple Podcasts, Spotify Or wherever you listen to podcasts.
