That momentary response is crucial in itself. It’s a conversation to avoid until it’s absolutely necessary, and it’s the kind of conversation the party has tried to avoid. Going in there and keeping Biden in would only do him more damage, because many of his allies would be saying, implicitly or explicitly, that he’s not up to the job.
This is a desperate plan, and it faces many hurdles. Stepping down would almost certainly require Biden’s consent, as he holds nearly all of the delegates for the Democratic National Convention in August. And even if he did, the process of choosing a replacement would be difficult. It’s not even clear that any alternative would be good for the party.
But it’s a prospect the party has had some discussion about since last year, when Biden hadn’t yet announced his reelection campaign, and his name had been floated as an alternative candidate or primary challenger.
So if the party were to go down this path, who would be a suitable candidate? Let’s take a look back at some of the candidates that have been named so far, along with their pros and cons.
Unless Harris also steps down, it’s hard to imagine her being considered as a replacement — she is the vice president, after all — and skipping the first female and first Black vice president would be risky for a party that struggles to maintain a typically wide lead with black voters, a key part of its base.
The problem is that Harris is just as unpopular as Biden. Recent polls from Monmouth University and Suffolk University put her disapproval rate at 18 and 16 points higher than her approval, respectively. Harris’ own 2020 presidential campaign was a flop, and the party doesn’t think she’s significantly better than Biden.
Republicans have made little secret of their desire to boost Harris’ standing, and the Trump campaign ran an ad during Thursday’s debate suggesting that Harris could one day replace Biden as president.
This is a name we’re going to see a lot more of in the future, and the Michigan governor is someone who seems almost ideal on paper as well as being a viable option in practice.
She’s a female governor from a key state (Democrats need to hold Midwestern battleground states because they’re having trouble in other battleground states) where she won both elections by about 10 points. Polls this year have her approval rating in Michigan between 54% and 61%. She also has more experience and national recognition than many other up-and-coming Democratic governors, such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Maryland Governor Wes Moore.
After Harris, she quickly rose to the top.
It is perhaps less well known that in 2020, the Secretary of Transportation nearly won the presidential nominations in Iowa and New Hampshire when he was just the mayor of a mid-sized Midwestern city (South Bend, Indiana). And if Democrats are looking for the polar opposite of Biden’s inability to send a message against Trump, it’s Buttigieg. His images of him battling Fox News hosts and Republicans in congressional hearings are widely shared within the Democratic Party. He is a gifted messenger.
Buttigieg’s big flaw is that he seems an inept candidate to address the Democratic field’s obvious problems with diverse voters, especially Black voters, a group he barely garnered support from in the 2020 presidential election.
The Pennsylvania governor is one of the most intriguing rising stars in the national Democratic Party, garnering praise for his big win and bipartisan support in the 2022 presidential election. And like Governor Whitmer, he’s hugely popular in a state that’s important for Democratic candidates: More than three in 10 Trump supporters in the state back him, according to polls this year. That’s not going to go unnoticed by Democrats.
But Shapiro has only been governor for a year and a half and is seen as a strong contender for the 2028 gubernatorial race — a move that would be a rapid climb for him, even though he previously served as the state’s attorney general and has held statewide office.
The Colorado governor and former congressman shares Shapiro’s bipartisan integrity: The first openly gay man elected governor has built a compelling record and largely avoided straying into potentially controversial liberal policies, winning by double digits in 2018 and nearly 20 points in 2022.
And he has made it clear he’s interested in going national one day.
Perhaps no one has emerged as a better candidate to replace Biden if he were to leave office than the California governor, in large part because he has sought to boost his national profile by mingling with national Republicans and Republican governors. In that respect, Newsom seems to share some characteristics with Buttigieg.
But it’s hard for a city like San Francisco, which is happy to see Republicans running against it on crime issues, to decide that running a California governor and former mayor is the Democratic strategy right now, which would essentially be an invitation for Republicans to caricature the Democratic candidate.
The Georgia senator has won two key battleground states in a short space of time, and his ratings appear to be higher than other black candidates who have made similar lists in the past, such as Sen. Cory Booker (N.J., DN).
Warnock’s 2022 campaign, in particular, was seen as a roadmap for how Democrats would campaign in 2024. Democrats have struggled to hold onto battleground states outside the Midwest, so picking someone from those states makes a lot of sense.
This is a dream choice for Democrats, and I mean that in more ways than one: She seems like an ideal replacement to many, but it also seems unlikely that she’ll run.
According to a YouGov poll conducted in late 2023, Mrs. Obama is America’s most popular former first lady dating back to Lady Bird Johnson. She has also consistently been liked by a majority of Americans, something that can’t be said for many politicians.
But she has publicly stated she has no intention of running herself, making it difficult for her to run for president with just a few months left, and reports emerged this week of tensions between her and the Biden campaign.
This is exactly the option for breaking glass in an emergency. And the glass seems less likely to break.
If Democrats were looking for a candidate who shares many of Biden’s characteristics, except for age, the Minnesota senator would make the most sense: She’s pragmatic and seemingly widely accepted, and she has a strong electoral record in her state.
But her national profile is still very limited, and her 2020 presidential campaign didn’t garner much support. If the goal of the game is to pick someone to take on Trump, “Minnesota Nice” might not be the one for you.
Perhaps no other company has seen its stock price soar as much in recent months, driven by the governor of Kentucky’s 2023 reelection victory in a heavily Republican state.
He has bipartisan appeal and has been successful in states without leaning too far to the right. (It’s common for Democratic governors in Republican states, and Republican governors in Democratic states, to be forced to take positions that are at odds with the national party.) He has emphasized his support for abortion rights during his 2023 campaign, something previously unthinkable.
He’s also reportedly taking the steps one would expect from someone with national ambitions, but it’s not clear how he’ll court the support of the liberal base Democrats need to inject some enthusiasm into.
