When it comes to immigration, perception matters more than reality

Any debate over immigration is first and foremost about perception: the issue is not how many foreigners are in your country, but how many are aware that they are there.

In the United States, immigrants tend to be popular in urban areas with large immigrant populations. Part of this is because the economic benefits of immigrants are more visible when you are in frequent contact with them, but part of it is also a matter of perception. If you are used to seeing many immigrants around you, you may not notice or care if the percentage of immigrants in your community goes from 24% to 26%. But if the percentage of immigrants goes from 0% to 2%, it is sure to be noticed and discussed within your community.

Recent evidence suggests the U.S. has overestimated the number of foreign-born people in the country, possibly by as much as 2 million less than the official figure of about 46 million. This hasn’t helped the mood of immigration critics, who have essentially ignored the move, as the debate over immigration policy is more about emotions than actual numbers.

I’m writing this from Sweden, a country that historically hasn’t had many non-Western immigrants, unlike the UK or France. But Sweden’s foreign-born population is growing and now accounts for almost a quarter of the country’s population of 10.5 million, about half of whom are from outside Europe. Walking around Stockholm, I see a lot of non-European faces.

It is common knowledge in the United States, especially among right-wing political commentators, that Sweden’s immigration policy has been a failure. The Swedish coalition government includes the populist right-wing Sweden Democrats, but this is largely due to the reluctance of mainstream parties to tackle immigration. In recent years, Sweden’s murder rate has skyrocketed, and Stockholm has seen a number of bombings and shootouts linked to immigrant groups.

At the same time, it’s indisputable that Sweden needs more talent, including young people. The country’s total fertility rate is less than 1.6, well below replacement level. Moreover, Swedes often don’t want to work jobs associated with immigration, such as driving for Uber or caring for children or the elderly. It’s also worth noting that Sweden’s murder rate is only about one-sixth that of the United States. From my perspective, Sweden is a very safe place.

When I’m searching for interesting food in a foreign city, I have a secret tactic: I ask locals which neighborhood you’re most likely to get murdered in. In Stockholm, the answer is Rinkeby, but many of the people I ask have never been there.

So I went to Rinkeby, a place where mostly non-whites, especially Somalis, congregate. There were Yemeni, Ethiopian, Persian and other restaurants. (I had a delicious chicken mandi at Maida.) I felt safe the whole time and saw lots of solo women, including a blonde Swede, strolling along the main street, many of them with cloths over their heads. I also saw a Western Union office and a driving school, evidence that people have the funds to send money and invest in cars.

It’s well known that the area has serious problems, including violence, but from my perspective as an American and Northern Virginian, Rinkeby is vibrant and successful, and has more potential to get better than it gets worse.

A sensible immigration policy consists in balancing different perspectives. On the one hand, Sweden cannot continue to increase its immigration rate, otherwise parties such as the Sweden Democrats will become too dominant. Future potential immigrants would also lose out, not to mention the political costs for native-born Swedes. Ignoring Swedes’ perceptions will not work in Sweden.

Meanwhile, immigration to Sweden has fared better than critics would have you believe: Sweden remains a prosperous and dynamic country with one of the best startup scenes in Europe, and while the high costs of immigration can be a drag on Swedes, these are also a by-product of Swedish society’s extreme openness.

The trick is to keep all these perspectives in mind at the same time – and always be open to trying new restaurants.

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