A conviction of Trump doesn’t seem politically transformative so far, and a conviction of Hunter Biden, who is less tied to voters’ choice, also seems unlikely to do so despite Republicans trying for years to bring down President Biden over his son’s case.
First, it is worth noting that the felony charges against Hunter Biden have nothing to do with President Biden. Republicans have tried in vain to scrutinize Biden’s overseas business dealings and link them to the president. Meanwhile, the Delaware charges were related to Hunter Biden’s illegal purchase of guns, which he was prohibited from purchasing or possessing as a drug user.
It’s possible that voters might hold the president responsible for his son’s conviction, but it’s a huge leap to make that connection.
And Americans generally aren’t going to take that kind of leap on this or any other Hunter Biden matter.
A February Reuters/Ipsos poll found that a majority of Americans (46 percent to 39 percent) said Hunter Biden’s broader legal troubles were “unrelated and unrelated to his father’s work as president.” Just 22 percent of independents said they “completely didn’t believe” that statement, meaning it definitely reflects the president’s responsibility.
The same poll found that 23% of Americans said they were less likely to vote for President Biden because of his son’s legal troubles.
However, these findings deserve some context.
By their estimate, those who said his son’s problems made them less likely to vote for Biden were overwhelmingly Republican-leaning voters who were unlikely to vote for Biden in the first place. Only 25% of independents said Hunter Biden’s legal problems made them less likely to support the president, and just 19% said it made it “much less likely.” Many independents are reliable votes for either party, regardless of their label.
These questions are Hunter Biden’s Wider Legal issues. Most voters likely had other allegations in mind: allegations that Republicans explored as part of their unsuccessful impeachment inquiry into President Biden, which was not heard in federal court in Delaware.
But even those don’t seem to be as much of an electoral concern to Americans as Trump’s legal problems.
A Fox News poll last year found that half of Americans said they believed Hunter Biden’s overseas business dealings were illegal, but the same poll found that fewer than four in 10 people said President Biden’s alleged ties to his son’s business dealings were illegal.
Again, this appears to be mainly people who were already opposed to Biden in the 2024 race. Just 33% of independents and 29% of moderates said Biden had engaged in illegal conduct with regard to his son.
Those figures are well below the majority of people, including independents, who believe Trump has broken the law in various criminal cases.
Rather than celebrating the verdict, Republicans on Tuesday were more likely to argue the case is a smokescreen — a sign they know their voters don’t particularly care about it — and criticize Hunter Biden for not being charged with worse crimes, such as allegedly acting as an unregistered foreign agent.
“This trial was nothing more than a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden crime family, who made tens of millions of dollars from China, Russia and Ukraine,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt said in a statement after the verdict.
(Republicans have tried to attack the “Biden crime family,” but they have not directly linked President Biden to any illegal activity and have not even been able to muster the votes needed for impeachment from Republican senators.)
Which raises the other big question, and perhaps the biggest one given that the ruling itself seems unlikely to affect voting: What does this mean for perceptions of the legal process that Republicans love to attack?
Democrats argue that Hunter Biden’s conviction weakens those arguments because it shows that even a Democratic president’s own son can be indicted and convicted. (Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey and Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas were also indicted recently.) Democrats, including President Biden, on Tuesday emphasized respect for the legal process in an apparent contrast to President Trump’s ongoing attacks on nearly everyone involved in criminal cases.
If this argument resonates with voters, it could certainly curb Trump’s efforts to “weaponize” the justice system, an argument that so far has not seemed to have any impact beyond Trump’s base.
But there is growing concern among Americans that Hunter Biden has gotten off relatively lightly, a concern echoed in polls and now shown by half of voters who believe he has engaged in illegal business dealings overseas.
A February Reuters poll found that 59% of Americans, including 32% of Democrats, believe Hunter Biden “is being treated favorably by U.S. prosecutors” because he is President Biden’s son. After his plea deal collapsed last year, a majority of 55% said the Justice Department’s treatment of him “was not tough enough.”
Those numbers could go down now that Hunter Biden has actually been convicted — he also faces a tax trial in California set to begin in September — but in the eyes of voters, this will likely seem like a minor event.
