For the first time, a single poll determined the entire day of the election campaign.
a YouGov Poll It suggested that Reform UK had overtaken the Conservative Party for the first time.
It’s worth thinking about this for a moment: one of the most successful political parties in the Western world, the party currently in power in the UK, is being outvoted by a party that is only a few years old.
But wait a second: any poll that makes the news should be treated with skepticism, because the polls that get the most attention are usually outliers, and it’s the poll trend that matters.
But in my judgement, it is this trend that makes this moment noteworthy, because Reform UK has been improving in the poll numbers throughout the campaign so far.
You can read Professor John Curtis’s analysis of the poll here. here.
But Nigel Farage has experienced false dawns before.
Westminster’s single-member constituency system means that parties need a geographically concentrated base of support to win seats.
Moderate support in many places could mean that they get many votes but few seats.
In 2015, UKIP won nearly four million votes. However, there was only one seat available.
Mr Farage believes he could win six million votes this time, or even more.
His influence after the election will depend on four factors:
- Will he win a Westminster seat?
- How bad are the Conservatives doing?
- How many seats will Reform UK win?
- How many votes will they get in total?
If the Conservatives do really badly, and he wins a seat, and other reform candidates do too, his role in shaping the future of the right could be hugely important.
But, as one senior Conservative suggested in an earlier text message I exchanged, this could also be “Farage’s honeymoon”.
And of the very many people who tell Conservative campaigners door-to-door that they don’t know how to vote, at least some may end up supporting the Conservatives.
At Nigel Farage’s latest press conference, the leader of the Reform UK Party stood behind a worn-out podium.
The party logo was printed on A4 paper and attached at the last minute with sticky tape.
It was a reminder that Nigel Farage’s newest party is an upstart one short on money and time.
He acknowledges he’s not as prepared as the team would hope.
He added that the Liberal Democrats, who also rose in the polls in the first three weeks of the election campaign, had a much more impressive campaign organisation.
But there is no shortage of ambition, brazenness or desire to create dizzying chaos among Conservative members.
Farage believes the Conservative party is world-weary, divided and fed up with the world.
That would terrorize at least some of their opponents, raising questions as to whether to subjugate them, take them over, or exterminate them.
If he manages to make it to the House of Representatives, that could be a soap opera going forward.
But for now, it means many Conservatives are plunging from gloom to doom, and this time their tormentors are closing in on them mercilessly.
