Winston Churchill once wrote, “Weakness is not treason, but it can be just as disastrous.”
The observation is that The approaching stormis the first volume of an epic six-part history of the Second World War, and it paints a similarly facile picture of current American Middle East policy as characterized by an inexplicable lack of courage that Churchill could never have imagined.
Indeed, to see just how badly US President Joe Biden has upset the region, one only needs to look off the coast of Yemen, where a thuggish group known as the Houthi rebels is wreaking unprecedented havoc on international shipping with virtual impunity.
Yemen may be the poorest country in the Middle East, but it is certainly the biggest drain on the global economy.
The Houthi rebels, an Iranian-backed Shiite terrorist group that seized control of much of Yemen a decade ago, have been attacking commercial ships and U.S. naval vessels in the Red Sea for more than six months.
The Houthis launched more than 70 attacks, capturing one ship, sinking two, and damaging another 30, killing four sailors, including one killed on June 12. They have used drones and cruise missiles, and for the first time ever, fired anti-ship ballistic missiles.
The Houthis claim that their illegal activities at sea are a show of solidarity with the Palestinians, but this is belied by the fact that the vast majority of the vessels they target have no connection to Israel whatsoever.
At least 15% of world trade passes through the Red Sea, so the impact of these attacks is enormous.
Last month, Suez Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabie said some 3,400 ships have been forced to change course since the Houthi offensive began late last year, bypassing the Red Sea and forcing them to go around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of kilometers to their journeys, stretching travel times by up to two weeks and increasing fuel costs by about 40 percent.
The situation has deteriorated so much that earlier this month 14 leading organisations representing shipowners, managers, ports and seafarers issued a global appeal condemning the Houthi attacks.
“This is an unacceptable situation and these attacks must stop immediately,” the statement said. “We call on countries with influence in the region to protect innocent sailors and quickly de-escalate the situation in the Red Sea.”
According to a report by the American television news program 60 Minutes, the Houthi attacks have disrupted supply chains, forcing major companies such as Tesla and Volvo to halt some production in Europe.
In response to the Houthi actions, Washington has deployed the U.S. Fifth Fleet, carrying about 7,000 sailors, to the region.
Navy Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, deputy commander for the US Middle East, told 60 Minutes that ship traffic through the Red Sea was “down by as much as 40 percent on some days.”
The Houthis have also not hesitated to fire missiles at U.S. naval vessels.
Asked when the U.S. Navy last saw such intense combat action, Cooper replied, “I think you have to go back to World War II.”
In January, a US-led air campaign was launched against Yemen. On January 10, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2722, strongly condemning the Houthi attacks and calling for an end to them.
The next day, President Biden issued a statement declaring that the Houthi attacks had “endangered Americans, civilian mariners, and our partners, jeopardized trade, and threatened freedom of navigation.”
He further warned the Houthis: “The United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks against our personnel or allow hostile forces to jeopardize freedom of navigation along one of the world’s most vital commercial shipping lanes.”
“I will not hesitate to order further measures as necessary to protect our people and the free flow of international trade,” he asserted.
But hesitating is exactly what Biden has done.
The dangers of indecision
Biden has refrained from taking more decisive, serious action against the Houthis, outside of periodic airstrikes, overtly refraining from attacking Iranian assets to punish them or urging the ayatollahs to force Houthi insurgents to retreat.
This is evident from the actions of the Houthi rebels, who earlier this week expanded their attacks beyond the Red Sea to attack ships on the edge of the Indian Ocean. Biden’s strategy, if you can call it that, is clearly not working.
Far from demonstrating American power, President Trump is effectively allowing Iranian proxies to wreak havoc on one of the world’s most vital commercial shipping lanes.
The message this sends to Tehran is both pathetic and dangerous, especially at a time when the Middle East is on the brink of broader conflict and Iran is accelerating its nuclear enrichment program.
If such a war were to break out, much of the blame would lie with the president in the White House, whose indecisiveness has emboldened Iran and its proxies across the region.
To borrow a phrase the late Charles Krauthammer once used, these are the costs of weakness. And they can be high indeed.
The author served as deputy communications director under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
