Imagine election night in 2024. Several close battleground states will decide the presidency and test the health of our democracy. In that scenario, we can be sure of two facts: neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump will win a majority of votes, and votes for independent and third-party candidates will dwarf the final difference. It will become.
Dissatisfied voters defected to insurgents like John Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992, Ralph Nader in 2000, and Jill Stein and Gary Johnson in 2016. It is customary to do so. Robert Kennedy’s vote share will be in double digits, and Libertarians, Greens, and Cornel West will make an appearance. Entire shadow campaigns are emerging on the ballots in many states. Democrats are spending millions of dollars on these candidates, but Republicans are watching to see if they can repeat their 2016 strategy. That strategy saw Trump flip the decisive states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with an average vote share of less than 48%.
American politics already has a proven solution to the “spoiler” problem. It’s a ranked vote. In Australia, there are on average more than five candidates in an RCV election without any ‘spoilers’. Maine and Alaska already plan to use RCV for this year’s presidential elections. If every state had an RCV, there would be no need to worry about third-party candidates tipping the state, and by extension, the White House, against the will of the people.
Instead of presenting a single choice, RCV voters rank candidates first, second, and so on. If no candidate wins by securing more than half of the initial nominations, subsequent candidates will be eliminated and their votes will be counted for the next candidate. A final “instant run-off” between the top two candidates ensures representative results without the cost and burden of a December run-off.
Alaska adopted RCV in the 2020 presidential election, and Maine adopted RCV after legislative action in 2019. But why haven’t 48 states, especially the seven swing states that will decide this November’s elections, passed RCV? Why is it a collective decision by voters unwilling to settle for the “lesser of two evils”? But is it a bigger wild card than Trump’s criminal trial or Biden’s age?
Change is certainly happening. Fifty US cities and hundreds of NGOs use RCV, and exit polls generally strongly support RCV. RCV has won 27 consecutive city votes, and four states and D.C. will likely vote on his RCV adoption statewide this November. It’s the inspiration for “Jeopardy!” And even national crossword puzzles.
Several proven approaches can help you scale RCV faster. Perfection is an illusion, but don’t settle for less. Voters of all backgrounds easily rank their positions every day, and all jurisdictions need to use well-designed ballots and tested voter education models to help them do that in RCV elections. there is. RCV results should be as fast, transparent, and auditable as non-RCV results. States would need to purchase voting equipment that would be as easy to use as turning on an RCV.
These changes are coming. Many cities release preliminary RCV tallies on election night, adopting best practices for transparency, auditing, and timely data release. Because all modern voting equipment can now run his RCV elections (which was a major concern for cities considering implementing RCV in the 1990s and 2000s), policymakers are confident that vendors will default to We are adjusting to the standards to be able to offer his RCV as an option. More jurisdictions are investing in better ballot design, intuitive results displays, and voter education.
Focusing on the battleground states that decide the White House could effectively end the presidential spoiler problem by 2028. RCV is already on the ballot in Nevada this November, and there are active movements for change in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Americans are fundamentally restless about their ballot choices, so we can’t hope that the spoiler problem will go away. It’s time to make RCV nationally responsive to voter choice and reward leaders who seek to represent the majority of Americans.
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