Supporters of the French National Rally in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, on June 30, 2024.
François Lo Presti | Editorial photo via Getty Images
President Emmanuel Macron’s “Together” (Ensemble) coalition and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) both called on voters to reject the party in the second round and withdrew candidates in many constituencies where their alternative candidates would have been better placed to beat the RN.
Opponents of the RN hope that by giving voters fewer choices and reducing the number of candidates, voters will choose non-RN candidates.
Analysts predict that the Rally National, a nationalist, anti-immigration, eurosceptic party led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella and party president Marine Le Pen, has a declining chance of winning an absolute majority (289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly), but is still likely to win the most votes.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella attend the final rally before the June 9 European Parliament elections at Le Dome de Sports in Paris on June 2, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
The main aim of the so-called “Republican Front” strategy being pursued by Macron’s supporters and left-wing parties is to make it significantly more difficult for the RN to win an absolute majority.
Still, it’s unclear how voters will react to (a) being told by the political establishment who to vote for, (b) being asked to vote for a party candidate they may instinctively oppose, and (c) receiving conflicting messages from political leaders who are now telling them to vote for a rival candidate they despised in an election campaign just a few days ago.
“Several senior Macron allies have made different proposals for the actions voters should take,” Antonio Barroso, deputy director of research at consulting firm Teneo, said in a note on Wednesday.
“For example, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said that voters should neither vote for the RN nor for candidates from the far-left party Remain France (LFI). At the same time, current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal called on everyone to vote against the RN.”
A poll published by Ifop on July 3 found that when presented with a choice on the ballot, voters are more likely to lean towards centrist Macron supporters or left-wing candidates than the RN candidate. But when presented with a choice between far-left and far-right candidates, the situation is more nuanced, resulting in a split in the vote.
Teneo’s Barroso also warned that the poll data “reflects national attitudes, ignoring local trends in each constituency.”
The first opinion polls released after the cross-party anti-RN coalition was formed projected the RN and its allies to win between 190 and 220 seats, far short of the 289 needed for a majority.
A Challenges magazine Harris Interactive poll published on Wednesday and reported by Reuters also showed the center-right Republicans were likely to win between 30 and 50 seats, meaning that even in the best-case scenario, it would be difficult for a right-led minority government to be formed.
Harris’ poll predicted that the left-leaning NFP coalition would win 159 to 183 seats, while Macron’s Together coalition would win only 110 to 135 seats. Reuters reported that the other parties would win between 17 and 31 seats.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping (not pictured) attend the sixth conference of the France-China Business Council at the Theatre Marigny in Paris, France, on May 6, 2024.
Mohammed Badla/Pool | via Reuters
It is unclear whether Macron would consider forming a cross-party coalition government with the NFP if parliament is left in limbo. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal suggested this week that moderates in the National Assembly could work together to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis, but little else has been said on the matter as parties focus on maximizing their own vote shares.
Teneo’s political analysis puts the chances of a hung parliament at 35 percent, saying “in these circumstances, coalition negotiations with other parties would be impossible.”
“This scenario will be the most uncertain because there are no easy solutions that would lead to the formation of a government. Prime Minister Gabriel Atal has suggested that the ‘republican forces’ (i.e. non-republican parties) in the National Assembly could come together to support a government. However, given the differences in policy preferences among the parties, such a coalition would be difficult to assemble.”
Teneo thinks there is a 35% chance that the RN will approach an absolute majority, in which case Marine Le Pen would likely try to win the support of the centre-right Republicans (LR) and other right-wing independents, and a 30% chance that the RN will win an absolute majority.
Macron shocked voters in early June when he called for them to vote after his Renaissance party suffered a heavy defeat to the Rally for the European Parliament in elections.
Jordan Bardella hands over his voting card to cast his vote at a polling station in the first round of parliamentary elections in Garches, a Paris suburb, on June 30, 2024.
Julian De Rosa | Editorial photo via Getty Images
Macron called for early general elections, saying the vote would bring “clarity” and that “a clear majority is necessary for France to act calmly and harmoniously.”
Macron’s gamble raised eyebrows among political analysts, who wondered whether it was based on a plan to give the Rally National a taste of power but then fail once in power, undermining rival Le Pen’s chances of re-election in 2027.
Close observers of French politics also say Macron was ultimately betting on French people’s fear of a far-right government.
According to the French Interior Ministry, opinion polls leading up to the first round had consistently shown the RN in the lead, but in reality the RN and its allies won 33.1% of the vote, with the NFP in second place with 28% and Macron’s coalition reaching 20%.
