But even with these dire assessments, voters are far more optimistic about the situation in their area. A majority of people think the state’s economy is doing well, and many likely think the state (not necessarily the nation) is on the right track.
It’s a strange predicament that has puzzled some economists, and politicians of both parties are demanding explanations. This rift between state and nation could determine whether President Biden wins a second term and who controls Congress next year. All of this can lead to very different views on how voters select candidates to represent them at the state, local, and national levels.
“The fundamentals of our economy are so strong that it’s hard to explain,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware), a close ally of Mr. Biden. denied national economic trends. “We still believe that something is wrong with this country, things are bad, and things are going in a bad direction.”
“They say this Our economy is strong, but the national economy stinks,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R.N.C.) said Thursday.
A recent concrete example of this phenomenon is a Wall Street Journal poll released in early April of seven key presidential battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It was revealed.
The head-to-head results garnered a lot of attention, with Trump narrowly leading in five states and tied in two others. And combined, just 25 percent of voters in these states think the country is headed in the right direction and think the country’s economy is “excellent” or “in good shape.” Much attention has been paid to the fact that only 36% of
Tillis looked at the poll and was surprised to find that North Carolina’s numbers were “really soft,” with only 33% saying the economy was doing well.
He missed a question about how North Carolinians view their economy. 64% rate their country’s economy as excellent or good. Essentially, nearly one-third of the state’s voters say the nation’s economy remains bleak, but the Tar Heel State is doing pretty well.
The same dynamics play out in all seven swing states. On average, 54% of voters said the state’s economy was excellent or good and 43% said it was bad, but views on the national economy were reversed, with 36% saying the state’s economy was at least good and 63% saying the state’s economy was was disapproved. .
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who is facing one of the tougher re-election battles this fall, said it’s no surprise that more than 50% of Nevadans believe their economy is strong, but why? He said he is having a hard time understanding the disconnect that only one-third of the population is present. The national economy appears to be doing well.
“Billions of dollars flowed into Nevada from the Infrastructure Act and the Inflation Control Act, and $500 million was spent on a program called Home Means Nevada for affordable housing. West of the Mississippi River from Las Vegas to Los Angeles The first high-speed rail link has been completed,” Rosen said.
Tillis is also bullish on North Carolina’s economy, where the unemployment rate is 3.5%, below the national average.
“Our economy is booming,” he said, citing recent private investment in North Carolina worth $4 billion from pharmaceutical companies, $5 billion from semiconductor companies and $4 billion to produce electric vehicle batteries. said.
He acknowledged that despite continuing concerns about inflation, much of the national economy is on sound footing.
“The reality is that our economy is doing pretty well. Most of the other states are doing pretty well, but most of them are not as good as North Carolina,” Tillis said.
But the second-term senator says any question about the country’s status, whether it’s about the economy or any other issue, becomes a simple referendum on the president’s popularity.
“I could understand why they would feel like, ‘I’m fine, but I don’t like where it’s heading nationally.’ I think it’s a proxy vote or a job approval vote,” Tillis said.
Coons suggested that part of the problem may be coming through a media echo chamber that is still at war over the past few years, especially in conservative news outlets that are often downplayed on the economy. did.
“The hangover from the pandemic and high inflation and other politicians saying we’re in a recession when we’re not,” he said.
Some Democrats see this as an opportunity rather than a problem, as many voters in battleground states see improvements in their daily lives. They predict that support for the national outlook is a lagging indicator that Democrats have time to show progress before the November election.
“We cannot escape the trauma that this country has experienced, and the world has since experienced, including a global economic shutdown, a pandemic, and high inflation,” Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pennsylvania) said Thursday. . “You can’t just spring up from that and say, ‘I feel better now that I can take my mask off.’
Dean said the state’s slow and steady improvement in the eyes of voters should boost Democrats.
A poll from Franklin and Marshall College, which regularly tracks the state’s trajectory, says the state is heading in the right direction as of May 2022, even as inflation remains at a 40-year high. Only 25% of Pennsylvanians responded. Almost 65% saw things going in the wrong direction.
But the numbers have steadily improved, and fewer than 50 percent of Pennsylvanians now say the state is heading in the wrong direction. But about 70% of Pennsylvanians still believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, according to a Journal poll.
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro remains highly popular, with 54% approving of his performance, according to Franklin & Marshall. This is nearly 20 points higher than Biden’s approval rating in Pennsylvania, but the current poll shows that the incumbent president outperforms the former president in a head-to-head race.
Shapiro is not the only popular governor in a battleground state.
In Georgia, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s approval ratings are roughly in line with how voters feel about the state’s economy (59% rate it good and 38% rate it poorly, according to the Journal poll). ing). In North Carolina, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s popularity far exceeds not only the ratings of the state’s senators but also the ratings of candidates to succeed him as governor.
Even in Wisconsin, where the Republican-controlled Legislature has clashed with him for years, Gov. Tony Evers (D) is far more popular than anyone else in the state.
A Journal poll found that 57% of Wisconsin voters think their economy is good or good, and just 40% say they don’t like it.
Still, Wisconsin voters flip that number when asked about the national economy. And when asked about the country’s overall direction, only 31% said it was on the right track.
Tillis believes the national malaise is reflected in a series of issues that are almost all negative for Biden, including the border crisis, crime and crises overseas.
“I think it’s immigration. I think it’s the economy. I think it’s international leadership,” he said. “There’s no other way to explain it.”
Part of this is the new normal, similar to the axiom of previous generations that voters hate Congress but love their own representatives.
For example, a Roanoke College poll last month found that 53% of Virginia voters approve of the job performance of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, while 49% of voters approve of the job performance of the governor of Richmond’s Democratic-dominated state legislature. % support it.
In Virginia, just 37% approved of Biden’s performance and a lower 16% approved of Congress.
Dean noted that inflation remained at 3.5% last month, which continues to worry voters. But she remains optimistic that the overall economy will continue to grow.
Those things, along with liberal energy driven by entrenched abortion bans in many states, give Democrats a good chance, she said.
“People are feeling these things in one area after another,” Dean said of the local economy. “There’s plenty of time. Consider women’s choices, women’s reproductive health. There’s plenty of time for Biden to win big.”
