In the era before Hamas’s October 7 massacre, an air defense operation that successfully thwarted an Iranian air attack on Israel would have looked like a victory. Nearly all (99%) of the more than 300 missiles and drones launched by the Iranian government and its proxies were shot down by the US-led international coalition, and Israel emerged largely unscathed.
But the failure of the paradigm that led to Hamas’ October 7 massacre has taught us that Israel and its allies, including the United States, must not simply revert to a defensive posture. It must be made clear to Iran and the entire Middle East that there will be a heavy price to pay for launching such an attack, even if it is averted.
Prior to October 7, 2023, the dominant security paradigm in Israel was one that relied on defense capabilities. Israel was adept at shooting Hamas rockets out of the Gaza Strip using its Iron Dome system. Even as Hamas’ arsenal in Gaza has become more sophisticated and Iran has provided precision missiles to Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border, Jerusalem’s security concept is based on relying on layered air defenses to remain as quiet as possible. I kept putting it on. As long as damage to Israel’s home front can be kept to a minimum, the Jewish state will be able to survive with limited attacks on terrorist groups in its vicinity.
This paradigm was supported not only by Israel’s military and political class, but also by the United States, which provided billions of dollars in support to Israel’s air defense under the 2018 U.S.-Israel Memorandum of Understanding. In 2022, Congress approved an additional $1 billion for Iron Dome. President Joe Biden’s November 2023 request for additional aid to Israel includes funding for 100 Iron Dome launchers.
This assistance has saved countless Israeli lives, and Israelis are rightly grateful for this assistance. At the same time, this approach allowed Israel to tell itself that “defense is deterrence.” Jerusalem says the appropriate response to Iran’s increasingly dangerous efforts to build a ring of terror around Israel through its proxies in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen is to build a defensive wall. I have adopted the belief that this is true.
On October 7th, that paradigm collapsed. Despite all of Israel’s high-tech systems, Hamas has shown itself to be undeterred and launched a horribly brazen and barbaric attack. One after another, Israel’s defense systems failed to prevent Hamas terrorists from killing more than 1,200 people, mostly Israelis, and kidnapping more than 250 others, leading to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Israel’s reliance on Iron Dome air defenses made security officials overly complacent with Hamas and failed to detect the terrorist group’s plans to attack Israel from other vectors.
In parallel, Israel evacuated towns along its northern border in line with its defense posture to move civilians out of the way of Iranian-funded Hezbollah missiles. It is unclear when tens of thousands of internally displaced Israeli refugees will be able to return to their northern homes.
On the night of October 13-14, Iran launched more than 300 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles toward Israel. Approximately 99% of these were intercepted by the Israeli, American, British, and Jordanian military, with Saudi Arabia and other countries reportedly also involved. This successful response demonstrated the utility of the nascent Middle East air defense architecture built since the signing of the Abraham Accords.
Immediately after the successful interception, President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel should view the result as a victory and that the United States would not support an Israeli counterattack, according to media reports.
Israel is at a critical crossroads. We need to decide whether we have learned the lessons of the failed security paradigm of the pre-October 7 era. If Israel accepts calls for restraint, Iran and its proxies in the region will be emboldened. If Israel fails to respond today, the capabilities of Iran and its proxies will continue to become more sophisticated and precise with each month and year. If the United States prevents a major Israeli counterattack, the rest of the world, including China and the Middle East, will conclude that the costs of carrying out a major attack on America’s allies are limited.
The success of such an Israeli counterattack, and the ability to limit its consequences, will be largely influenced by the extent to which the United States supports Israel. Most importantly, Jerusalem needs assurances that Washington will provide it with the military equipment it needs.
What can the United States do to help Israel?
Resolute American support for Israel’s operations against Iran and Hezbollah will send a clear message to the Islamic Republic, while improving security across the region and laying the foundation for future stability. If the United States and Israel show unity and resolve, Iran will limit its response. We must not forget that Iran’s economy is in dire straits, increasingly dependent on energy sales to China and arms sales to Russia. The Ayatollah government faces significant opposition within the country. Iran is therefore much more vulnerable to attacks targeting its strategic assets.
President Biden warned Iran with one word: “Stop” before it launched an attack. But Iran did. Now is the time to put words into action. Israel must learn the lesson of October 7 and show that it is no longer just about defense. The United States must demonstrate that its repeated assurances of “ironclad” support for Israel include the Jewish state’s ability not only to deter blows but also to attack those who threaten its people.
The author is a senior fellow at the Misgab Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy. He previously held senior positions in Israel’s Ministry of Strategy and Ministry of Public Security.
