CNN
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President Joe Biden has put himself and America’s credibility on the line by trying to change the way Israel fights in Gaza.
He is now waiting to see how far Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will capitulate to the most significant shift in tone and strategy by his government since the start of the war.
If Prime Minister Netanyahu refuses on Thursday to take “concrete, specific and measurable” steps in the Gaza Strip to alleviate civilian suffering and protect aid workers, as Biden called for. The President of the United States will face a momentous choice. Prime Minister Netanyahu is prepared to prolong his defiant stance on the issue, which poses major political risks as young, progressive and Arab-American voters are outraged by the war in his re-election year. I wonder if there is.
Or will Mr. Biden take a significant step to condition the terms of U.S. support for Israel in the war sparked by the Hamas terrorist attack in Israel that killed 1,200 people?
In an early sign that Biden’s message may be getting through, Israel’s Security Cabinet late Thursday approved measures including reopening the Erez border between Israel and the northern Gaza Strip for the first time since the October 7 attack. Israeli officials told CNN. The move could allow humanitarian aid to flow more easily into Gaza as famine looms.
But to soften criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu and reduce Mr. Biden’s own domestic political exposure, a sustained Israeli pivot – weathering a potential escalation of the war with Hamas – will be needed in the coming days. It will be necessary.
A high-stakes phone conversation between Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu took place on Thursday in the wake of Israel’s attack on Gaza that left seven World Central Kitchen relief workers dead. The tragedy appears to have sparked even more outrage than the Gaza Health Ministry’s announcement that more than 30,000 people have been killed in the enclave of Gaza, where Hamas maintains troops in civilian areas.
This is important because the United States has warned that Gaza policy could change without Netanyahu’s swift action, raising the possibility for the first time that conditions could be attached to its solid support for Israel. It was a moment. Biden also called for an “immediate ceasefire,” officials said.
“If we don’t see the changes we need to see, policy will change,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said after the call. Although the administration did not say how the U.S. position might change, prominent Democratic lawmakers are now speaking publicly about imposing restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons by the Israel Defense Forces. ing. Among them is Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, who is close to the president. The senator’s indication on Thursday that he was open to conditions on arms sales was the latest public statement by a Democratic official and sounded like a warning that Biden’s political position was becoming unsustainable. Ta.
Despite repeatedly expressing dissatisfaction with Israeli tactics, the White House has been unwilling or unable to exert any influence over the prime minister. This new attempt to do so therefore crosses an important line, and tensions between the allies could become even more acute if the new US push does not yield results.
In a week when a Palestinian-American doctor walked out of a “listening session” about the war with the president, the administration’s presentation shows that Biden needs to show sections of the Democratic coalition that it is putting pressure on Israel. The method was obvious. Results of the call.
Mr. Blinken, while in Brussels, held a televised news conference in which he addressed Americans at home and US allies who were far more prepared than Mr. Biden to condemn Israel’s war effort. National Security and Public Affairs Advisor John Kirby has since taken over the baton at the White House, and the US wants changes in Israel to be implemented immediately, including the opening of further aid corridors to Gaza and measures to protect civilians. He emphasized.
It is unusual for a government to so carefully and publicly outline a telephone conversation with a foreign leader. Typically, the White House releases statements that provide few useful details of the conversation. But this time, the administration was determined to control the narrative, defining what happened before Israel presented its own version of events. Biden did not appear in front of television cameras, but he posted a photo on X of himself staring thoughtfully into his phone with a pen to his mouth during a call. “Israel must address civilian harm and worker safety, and work towards a ceasefire that will allow the hostages to return home,” the president wrote. This coordinated public diplomacy emphasized the significance of America’s transformation. But if Netanyahu does not cooperate, the cost to Washington will increase.
Leon Panetta, the former White House chief of staff, CIA director and defense secretary, told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Thursday that the administration’s drawing a line with Israel would be effective and that Biden would call for a ceasefire. He said he believes that is important. “This war has been going on for almost half a year, and I think President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu have continued to, to some extent, continue to see eye-to-eye on their concerns. I think that’s changed. … I hope that’s changed. ” he said.
Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has spoken out against Israel’s strategy in Gaza, said U.S. taxpayers should not be “complicit” in allowing Israel to kill innocent people. “In short, we are witnessing one of the worst humanitarian disasters we have seen in a very long time,” the Vermont senator told Tapper. “In my opinion, Israel should not get another dime in military aid until these policies are fundamentally changed,” Sanders said. “Hamas started this war. They are a terrorist organization, but the United States is not funding Hamas, we are funding Israel…We have to make it clear to Israel: We can go to war with Hamas, but we cannot continue this war.” A horrible act. ”
Although Prime Minister Netanyahu has been in power for much of the past quarter century and is an extraordinary political survivor, he has a long track record of ignoring U.S. pressure, which makes dealing with him extremely dangerous for the U.S. president. This is one of the reasons why.
There was no immediate reaction from the prime minister, but he called a cabinet meeting after the call and warned Israel would defend itself from Iran. The Islamic Republic has issued a warning of retaliation after an attack in Damascus that killed two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders and which the United States blamed on Israel. The Israeli government on Thursday put its entire military on high alert and suspended leave for combat troops. “We will know how to protect ourselves, and we will act on the simple principle that whoever harms us or tries to harm us, we will harm them,” Netanyahu said. ” he said.
While the call with Biden highlighted the differences between Israelis and Americans, the administration also emphasized that U.S. support for Israel’s security is inalienable. “They certainly talked about the very public and real threat posed by Iran to Israel’s security,” Kirby said. “President Biden reaffirmed America’s strong support for Israel in the face of these threats and our nation’s commitment to Israel’s security,” Blinken said.
Tensions between the Israeli prime minister and Biden have not increased because of a personal rift. The two are veteran politicians who have known each other for many years. Rather, the president’s political interests, and perhaps the United States’ national security interests, are divorced from Netanyahu’s political interests. Biden has a strong incentive to end the war, given that he faces political headwinds from within a fragile coalition in key states that will decide the 2024 election. Many observers in Washington believe Netanyahu has an incentive to prolong the conflict, given that elections are likely to be held once the intensity of the conflict has subsided. At that point, the focus also shifts to responsibility for the worst terrorist attack in Israel’s modern history and what will likely be a tough time for Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has presented himself as the ultimate guarantor of security to the Israeli people. right.
One of the most notable features of Netanyahu’s strategy in recent months is that even symbolic lip service to U.S. needs, given the political price that Biden is paying in return for his staunch support for Israel, is They also have no intention of paying. On the one hand, it’s not surprising. For many Israelis, the horror of October’s terrorist attack and the vileness of the enemy’s efforts to wipe it off the map overshadows other considerations. Although Prime Minister Netanyahu has leant toward the far right throughout his career, he runs the most conservative government in Israeli history and relies on several extreme Orthodox parties to keep him in power. There is. The Israeli prime minister is a complete player in Washington, working with Biden’s Republican opponents on Capitol Hill, and if Biden deepens his rift with the Israeli prime minister, it could increase political complexity for the president. be. Strengthening the synergy between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Republican Party, House Speaker Mike Johnson warned in a post on X that “the president’s ultimatum should be directed at Hamas, not Israel.”
Still, Israel remains increasingly isolated internationally, and U.S. support has rarely been so critical. If Prime Minister Netanyahu openly defies the American president’s demands of the people, he is putting himself at great risk. Israel’s planned attack on Rafah, which the United States has warned not to be carried out until civilians are protected, now looms as a potential breaking point between the two leaders.
If Biden ultimately decides that his warnings are not heeded, his credibility will depend on whether he publicly imposes a price on the Israeli prime minister. He will do so with a heavy heart, given his deep emotional ties to Israel.
But Biden’s political imperatives and the growing humanitarian cost of the war in Gaza mean he is at a crossroads. And now Prime Minister Netanyahu will decide which path he will take.
