Top Line
Home prices in the upstate New York metropolitan area have risen faster than anywhere else in the U.S. so far this year, making it one of the few affordable places outside of major U.S. cities where home prices and sales are rising rapidly, according to data provided to Forbes by Zillow.
Rochester is one of several cities in upstate New York that have developed a strong buyers’ market. … [+]
Key Facts
Syracuse, New York: So far this year, the average home price has increased 4.3% (to $230,632) due to the area’s affordable housing and the fact that there are far more buyers than homes for sale in the metropolitan area.
Zillow housing trends expert Amanda Pendleton is calling this surge a “breakout era” for upstate New York, which has also helped Rochester, Buffalo and Albany join Syracuse as the top-selling markets in the country, according to Zillow.
Scranton, Pennsylvania: The sparsely populated metro area is experiencing similar home price growth as Syracuse, according to Zillow, and is attracting buyers because home prices are nearly $160,000 lower than the national average of about $360,000.
Hartford, Connecticut: Home prices have soared in more affordable areas near major East Coast cities, and Hartford is no exception: The average home price in the nation’s capital ($362,763) is up 4% so far this year, but the area’s total home inventory is down 67% from pre-pandemic levels.
San Diego, California: Sunny San Diego was the only West Coast region in Zillow’s top five fastest-growing metro areas, with the average home price increasing 3.8% (to $958,266) as a strong increase in new listings isn’t meeting buyer demand in the region, which can be tough for first-time buyers who must come up with a large down payment.
New York, New York: In New York, the nation’s largest metropolitan area, the number of homes for sale is less than half what it was before the pandemic, giving sellers an advantage in negotiations and helping to drive up the region’s median home price ($657,279) by 3.6%.
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tangent
Zillow home price data is calculated by aggregating Zestimates (Zillow’s estimate of home market value) for each home in a neighborhood and reporting the middle third. Data cited in this article is for the period December 31, 2023 – May 31, 2024.
Which metro areas are seeing prices rise the fastest?
The San Jose, California, area will see the fastest growth in home sales prices, rising 8.2% from December 2023 to April 2024, according to S&P CoreLogic data provided to Forbes. Other metro areas with the biggest sales price jumps over the same period are Rochester, New York (8%), Seattle (6.3%), Albuquerque, New Mexico (5.3%) and Anaheim, California (5.2%). Prices in San Jose surged after declining in 2022 and 2023, driven by rising mortgage costs due to rising interest rates. But last year, San Jose “driving big demand with a larger share of purchases by investors than any other U.S. market,” CoreLogic chief economist Molly Bozell told Forbes. Meanwhile, CoreLogic said home prices are rising in Rochester due to low inventory and affordability. Seattle metropolitan area home prices fell nearly 15% in the second half of 2022, as inventory buildup became evident the following year, but inventory has since declined, contributing to a 6.3% increase in home prices. Albuquerque’s housing market experienced its usual surge this winter and spring, and Anaheim recently recovered from declines in home prices in 2022 and 2023.
Big numbers
3.1%. That’s the rate at which U.S. home prices have grown from December 2023 through April of this year, according to CoreLogic. That’s a slower pace than 2022 and 2021, but it’s still a steep increase compared to the same pre-pandemic period going back to 2015.
Main Background
Pendleton said the upstate New York metropolitan areas with the fastest home price growth in the country are being driven by buyers “significantly” outnumbering the number of listings available. Rochester leads the region’s metros in terms of a buyer-friendly market, with home prices rising from $218,564 in January to $224,734 in May, according to Zillow. The average selling price of a home in the city is $185,333. Bozell said the limited number of home listings is what’s driving the recent rise in home prices nationwide, following a slight dip in spring 2022 and much of 2023 triggered by rising interest rates. In general, more expensive U.S. metropolitan areas “will see a greater impact on home prices in 2022 and 2023, and some of these areas are seeing home price increases.” [are]
We will experience a price recovery in 2024.”
Points to note
Zillow predicts that national home prices will rise 0.4% this year and fall 1.4% over the next 12 months. Many new listings are staying on the market for longer periods, which is causing inventory to build up and putting “some downward pressure on home price growth,” according to Zillow.
References
2024 Housing Market Predictions: When will housing be affordable again? (Forbes)
Home Prices Surge to All-Time High in March – Here are the Fastest-Growing Cities (Forbes)
