CNN
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Ukraine’s ammunition and military equipment shortages, caused by the United States and its allies’ struggles to resupply the country’s military, come as Russia steps up attacks on Kiev’s waning air defenses. U.S. and NATO officials have warned of dire implications. It probably won’t be replenished soon.
A NATO official said Wednesday that the Ukrainian military “mainly lacks medium- and long-range air defense ammunition.” “It’s not just that we know it. It’s that Russia knows it. So Russia is using drones and missiles in a way that is clearly intended to destroy Ukraine’s air defense systems. It is.”
Another person familiar with Western intelligence said Ukraine has been distributing supplies to its air defense forces for about a month. The Ukrainians initially had limited systems, including Patriot systems provided by the US and Germany around Kiev, some S-200 and S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, and older modifications that they had been using. Included were Soviet launchers. This person said it would launch Western missiles like the Sidewinder.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday that the battlefield situation in Ukraine was “difficult” and “serious.” He said NATO foreign ministers who met in Brussels this week agreed to review their own inventory to see if there were any additional air defense systems, particularly Patriot, that could be shared with Ukraine.
But Ukraine is rapidly running out of ammunition for its air defense systems, and the United States will not be able to replenish ammunition until the administration secures additional funding from Congress. Last fall, the administration asked Congress for more than $60 billion in additional funding to help Ukraine, but more than six months later the funding has not passed due to opposition from Republican lawmakers.
“There are things in the pipeline that are in procurement and production, but we don’t have enough in the coming months to fill that gap because we don’t have the funding,” a senior defense official said last month.
The official suggested that the Ukrainian military must be making “tough decisions” by now about where to prioritize air defense due to dwindling supplies. A separate shortage of shells could be “potentially catastrophic” for Ukraine in the short term, the official added.
Meanwhile, Russia maintains a “significant quantitative advantage” over Ukraine in munitions, manpower and equipment, and is likely recruiting about 30,000 additional personnel each month, a senior NATO official said. Ta. The official said Russia has been making “gradual advances” west of Avdiivka over the past month, but continues to gain momentum and is overshadowed by the fact that Ukraine has few fixed, well-defended urban positions. It is said that they are using it.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that Ukraine had succeeded in “stabilizing” the situation, but that Russia could launch a new large-scale attack by May or June and that Western support He predicted that it would be difficult to break this unless the system is significantly strengthened.
NATO officials said that at the moment Russia appears to lack the task forces needed to mount such a large-scale and successful attack. But U.S. officials believe that front-line positions in Ukraine may not be resilient enough to fend off Russia’s ongoing advance, especially given the severe shortage of artillery ammunition. There are growing concerns about this.
One U.S. official has warned that one major breakthrough on the front could open the floodgates to a Russian onslaught, and it remains to be seen how well-fortified Ukrainian positions are now. It is difficult.
Despite Ukraine’s attempts to strengthen its front lines with anti-tank Dragonteeth obstacles, trenches, infantry trenches and minefields, Russia was able to make some “tactical” progress, a senior NATO official admitted. Ta.
The official said “the progress being made on the ground is still relatively small” by the Russian side. “But that doesn’t mean I’m not worried at all, because strategic progress is made up of a lot of tactical progress.”
However, despite the dire situation, Ukraine has achieved some successes. Attacks on Russia’s energy sector are having a noticeable impact.
Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries by long-range drones “place a financial burden on Russia and impact its domestic fuel market,” a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) official said. Ta.
This assessment comes considering that U.S. officials have expressed concern about Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and have repeatedly stated that the United States does not encourage or enable Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. is noteworthy.
Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishina said in remarks at a security forum in Kyiv last month that she “understands the call of our US partners” to halt attacks. “At the same time, we are fighting with the capabilities, resources and practices available to us today.”
A North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) official said the attack on the refinery had a “significant” impact, disrupting up to 15% of Russia’s refinery capacity. Rebuilding that capacity is likely to take “significant time and expense,” officials said.
The official said that as a result of the attack on Ukraine, Russia had to significantly increase its gasoline imports from Belarus and also imposed a six-month ban on exports to stabilize domestic prices.
“There is less and less of Russia’s critical energy infrastructure safe from potential strikes, and the impact on the Russian economy is becoming more and more significant,” the official said.
But U.S. and Western officials have widely signaled that, while Russia may manage to pull off an upset on the battlefield, significant developments for either side of the war are unlikely this year. It has recognized. That is why they believe it is important that the West continues to support Ukraine through this period of attrition.
To that end, Stoltenberg is considering various options to increase long-term support for Ukraine, including establishing a $100 billion fund over five years from alliance member states, CNN reported on Wednesday. Ta.
The fund is not large enough to support Ukraine’s war effort against Russia indefinitely, but NATO officials This will give the country a support base that is important to the country. We have no intention of providing any further support to Kiev.
One other idea being considered involves NATO taking over leadership of the Pentagon-led Ukraine Contact Defense Group, a central node that coordinates the logistics of arms shipments to Ukraine.
Stoltenberg said on Thursday: “Allies agreed to move forward with plans to expand NATO’s role in coordinating necessary security assistance and training to Ukraine.”
The Secretary-General called for “establishing a stronger, more robust and more predictable framework for long-term support” for Ukraine so that it is “less dependent on ad hoc, spontaneous, short-term announcements”. ” detailed the need.
CNN’s Kylie Atwood contributed reporting.
