CNN
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US intelligence has learned that Yemen’s Houthi rebels are in talks to provide weapons to Somalia’s al-Shabaab militant group, a worrying development that could further destabilize an already violent region, three US officials told CNN.
Authorities are now looking for evidence of Houthi weapons being delivered to Somalia and trying to determine whether Iran, which provides military and financial support to the Houthis, was involved in the deal.
The U.S. has been warning countries in the region about this potential collaboration in recent weeks, and African countries have also expressed concerns and begun actively raising the issue with the U.S. to get more information, according to the official.
“This is an area of very active discussion that we’re having with countries on both sides of the Red Sea,” the person said, “and it’s being looked at quite seriously.”
It’s not a natural alliance for two groups divided by sectarianism and with no known past ties — the Houthis are Shiite Zaydi and al-Shabaab has traditionally been strongly ideologically opposed to Shiites — but they are separated by only one body of water, the strategic Gulf of Aden, and each sees the United States as its chief enemy.
The information raises the worrying possibility that the marriage of convenience could escalate both in Somalia and in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, where the Houthis have launched regular attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. military assets since the war in Gaza began.
U.S. officials say there are signs that Iran, the Houthis’ main backer, is concerned about the group’s offensive strategy, but a deal could provide the group with a new source of funding. “Weapons sales would provide the Houthis with much-needed revenue,” the official said.
For al-Shabaab, it could provide access to new sources of weaponry, including drones, far more advanced than its current arsenal, giving the group the capability to strike targets in the United States.
Smuggling of small arms and commercial supplies between different groups in Yemen and Somalia has been commonplace for years, but U.S. officials say the arms deal between al-Shabaab and the Houthis is new.
“This is perhaps the clearest sign yet that two ideologically opposed organisations have prioritised their common ground of hostility. [the United States]”This is very significant because it shows there’s a certain pragmatism on both sides,” said Christopher Anzalone, a professor in the Middle East studies department at Marine Corps University.
The official said any form of military cooperation between the Houthis and al-Shabaab could undermine the informal and fragile ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia that has held since 2022. It would also “certainly” go against the spirit of a proposed UN roadmap for a more lasting peace, the official said.
“We remain very interested in supporting the roadmapping process in Yemen,” the official added, “but this kind of trafficking between the Houthis and al-Shabaab will undoubtedly complicate and undermine that effort.”
Officials say it’s unclear at this point what weapons the Houthis will provide to al-Shabaab. Currently, the only weapons available to Somali militants are the rockets, mortars and homemade improvised explosive devices they used in their fight against the Somali government — lethal but relatively small weapons. By contrast, the Houthis have armed drones, including underwater drones. They also have short-range ballistic missiles. One U.S. official said the deal could be for “larger equipment” as well as rockets and mortars, but no further information was available.
No matter what the Houthis provide, al-Shabaab will have limited opportunities to directly attack U.S. military facilities in the region. Anzalone said that even if the Houthis provide al-Shabaab with the small missiles they are using to attack U.S. MQ-9 drones, al-Shabaab would likely have to launch them from northern Iraq. Part of that part of the country is controlled by an increasingly powerful branch of ISIS. Al-Shabaab frequently fights for territory there, and as a result, its presence and freedom of action are much more limited.
“They would be happy to do that,” Anzalone said, referring to directly attacking U.S. assets. Al-Shabaab sees Somalia’s internationally recognized government as a U.S. puppet. But “it would be difficult for them to do that. This is where the intra-jihadi fighting between Shabaab and ISIS is at its most intense,” he said.
The United States has about 480 troops in Somalia, according to U.S. officials, as the Biden administration continues its counterterrorism offensive against al-Shabaab and ISIS strongholds in Somalia.
A big question for U.S. intelligence officials is the extent of Iran’s involvement in the deal. Officials said they don’t have direct evidence yet but the U.S. continues to investigate. It fits a pattern of broader Iranian efforts to expand its front against the U.S. and the West by directly or indirectly providing weapons to proxies.
“It’s something we’re definitely looking at,” the administration official said.
But the Houthis are also the most independent of the various Iran-aligned groups and the one over which Tehran exercises the least control. Iran is seeking to tightly manage any potential tensions arising from the war in Gaza, calibrating its response to extract costs from the United States and Israel without escalating into direct conflict.
That has left some U.S. officials skeptical about Iran’s involvement.
“Don’t think Iran is actually involved in this,” one military official said. “The Houthis are doing their own Houthis thing.”
