Donald Trump made history on Thursday when a Manhattan jury returned a 34-count guilty verdict, making him the first former president to be convicted of a felony. While falsifying business records to hide hush payments to women who claim to have slept with Trump is one of the most scandalous things Trump has ever done, we should all welcome this verdict as a sign of the health of our democracy. It’s a warning to leading politicians across the nation: no citizen is above the law and no citizen, no matter how high their social standing, can escape accountability.
But it would be a mistake to think that convicting Trump will change the course of the 2024 election. It would be extremely dangerous for Democratic leaders and voters to rely on Trump’s future sentence or the taint of his felony conviction to stop him from winning the White House again. The only sure way to prevent that from happening is to do it the old-fashioned way: by developing a better message and by outfundraising, outorganizing, and outmobilizing.
Fortunately, President Joe Biden He’s already getting that message across. Shortly after the verdict, his campaign released a statement urging voters to remain vigilant and participate in the political process: “Today’s verdict does not change the simple reality facing the American people: The only way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office remains the ballot box.”
Leading up to the verdict, there was much drama and suspense over whether Trump would be found guilty. The case brought against Trump by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg was based on a relatively new legal theory and, in the eyes of many legal experts, was far from a sure thing. Trump’s conviction by a jury of his peers naturally generated much surprise and excitement. It is unusual for a power-hungry billionaire — who not only routinely evades the law but makes a mockery of it — to be convicted of a felony and face the possibility of prison. But Thursday’s signs of social health do not necessarily translate into political victories for the Democratic Party.
While the image of Trump as a prison dweller may seem politically harmful to him, he may not receive a prison sentence, and even if he does, it is unlikely he will serve it by Election Day. Trump’s sentence is scheduled to be handed down by New York State Judge Juan Marchand on July 11. His sentence could range from a fine to up to four years in prison. (An intermediate possibility would be house arrest.) But as my colleague Jordan Rubin explains, he is likely to appeal, so it’s unlikely Trump will be in prison by Election Day, and the issue is unlikely to be resolved. Even in the unlikely event that Trump receives the maximum sentence and is incarcerated by then, many legal scholars believe there is nothing in the Constitution that would prevent him from continuing to be a presidential candidate or serving as president while incarcerated. (Earlier in the 20th century, socialist leader Eugene Debs won about 3% of the national vote, even while incarcerated for violating the Espionage Act for an anti-war speech.)
The political impact of Trump’s conviction, then, will not be about him actually going to prison, but rather the stigma that comes with running for president as someone who has recently been convicted of a felony (it also seems unlikely that any of his other three criminal cases will go to trial before Election Day). There is no modern precedent for this kind of scenario involving a major party candidate, so it would be unwise to make predictions. But polling data since last year has consistently shown that Trump’s indictment had little to no effect on support for him (polls also show that voters view Trump’s hush money case as less serious than his other criminal cases). And while it remains to be seen what the polls will be like once the news of Trump’s conviction really sinks in, instant polls suggest a similar trend. The big question is to what extent a conviction will undermine Trump’s standing among independents, who seem more likely to care about Trump’s legal problems than Republicans. Their standing will become clearer after Trump is convicted in July. But it would be dangerous to assume that the damage would be enough to hurt Trump decisively and reduce his share of the vote in battleground states where he has held consistent leads for months – states that could determine the outcome of the election.
It also remains to be seen whether Republican backlash against the ruling will drive turnout higher than it would have been without the ruling. Less than 24 hours after the ruling, the Trump campaign boasted that it had already raised more than $30 million from Republican supporters. Republicans have almost unanimously denounced the ruling and presented it as a sign of crisis for the republic. Right-wing commentators have portrayed the ruling as a sign of deep state conspiracies and an impending civil war. Snap polling data shows that a much higher percentage of Republicans disapprove of the ruling. more The percentage of people who say the verdict makes them “unlikely” to vote for Trump is higher than the percentage who say the verdict makes them “unlikely” to vote for him. Will conservative voters really see this as a tipping point? And will this alarm remain strong through November? If so, it’s conceivable that some center-right Americans who were previously unwilling to vote might start thinking about voting as a way to express their anger at what they see as a state conspiracy against the right. The uptick doesn’t have to be large; to stay competitive, Trump just needs to have as many voters defecting because of the conviction.
On a messaging level, it seems logical for Biden to bring up Trump’s criminal convictions and various ongoing criminal trials in portraying him as lawless and corrupt. But the overriding point is not that Trump is a bad person because he breaks the law, but that his lawlessness is linked to his vision of America’s future: an authoritarian society in which those in power use the law to consolidate their power, suppress dissent, and police only the kinds of crimes they personally disapprove of.
Would a conviction of Trump be a major factor in tipping the election in Biden’s favor? Possibly. But the stakes are so high, and Trump has performed so well in the polls for so long, that this race probably shouldn’t be treated as anything other than a traditional political contest.
This article originally appeared on MSNBC.com.
