There have been growing calls for a regulatory probe into the alleged manipulation of stock markets through exit polls. Rajya Sabha member Saket Gokhale has written to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) requesting an investigation into the exit polls conducted by Axis MyIndia, among others.
In a letter to Election Commission of India Chair Madhavi Puri Buk, Gokhale alleged that Axis MyIndia had grossly inflated the number of seats won by the BJP-NDA in its exit polls, which then triggered a rally in the Indian stock market. However, there was a huge discrepancy between the actual election results and the exit poll predictions, which led to a major stock market crash the next day.
Gokhale is a Senator from the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC).
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“I have written to SEBI, requesting an investigation into the exit polls (specifically Axis MyIndia) which had grossly inflated the BJP-NDA’s seat tally. In Bengal, the BJP had predicted 26-31 seats, but in reality it won only 12. This is a staggering exaggeration of 116-158 percent. This is way beyond the standard margin of error,” Gokhale said in the X post.
He noted that the stock market saw a big surge on Monday following the exit polls, then crashed to unprecedented levels on Tuesday after the election results were announced.
The TMC leader asked SEBI to probe whether there were any entities that booked profits on sales on June 3 and made further profits through short selling on June 4. He also asked the regulator to probe whether any of these entities have direct or indirect links with the BJP or pollsters like Axis MyIndia.
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“The exit polls were clearly manipulated to bolster share prices. Billions of rupees of investors’ money was lost after the markets crashed yesterday. There should be an investigation to find out whether polling firms like Axis MyIndia deliberately inflated the BJP’s exit polls. This is significant as Axis MyIndia also had the BJP as a client,” Gokhale said.
He added that the investigation must also reveal whether the BJP and the poll agencies manipulated the stock market through exit polls and made millions of rupees.
An India Today/Axis MyIndia poll had predicted the BJP-led NDA to win between 361 and 401 seats. However, the actual final result showed the BJP-led NDA leading/winning in 292 seats, a margin of 23-37%. Moreover, the same poll had predicted the BJP to win between 26-31 seats in West Bengal.
However, in the 2024 election results, the BJP managed to win just 12 seats in the state, a margin of a whopping 116-158%.
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“While a margin of error of around 10-15 per cent can be expected, a deviation of 116-158 per cent is immense. Further, such a stark deviation between projections and results has not only been observed in West Bengal but also in several other states,” Gokhale said in the letter to Sebi.
Following these exit poll predictions, Indian stock markets soared on Monday, June 3, with both the Sensex and Nifty 50 surging by over 3%. Then, the next day, June 4, the day the election results were announced, stock markets crashed, with both the Sensex and Nifty 50 falling by nearly 6%.
“The sudden rise of nearly 3.5 percentage points after the exit polls on Monday and its sudden fall of 5.8 percentage points the next day after the results were announced is unnatural and shows how inflated and off the mark the exit polls were. Again, of particular concern is that the most popular and most viewed India Today-Axis MyIndia exit poll was found to be completely inaccurate and inflated in favour of the BJP-led NDA,” the Rajya Sabha MPs’ letter said.
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Gokhale further pointed out that Axis MyIndia had been hired by BHP to conduct election research for the party and alleged that it was a clear conflict of interest for the agency to be working for the BJP and also participating in exit polls without clearly and explicitly disclosing the apparent conflict of interest.
On June 3, 2024, the market rose following the exit poll results, resulting in huge profits for investors. However, on June 4, 2024, investors lost more than $10 million. ₹31 trillion rupees, he said.
In his letter, Gokhale asked Sebi to initiate an urgent investigation focusing on three key points:
(a) Whether there was any deliberate inflation of the exit poll figures by India Today Axis Milendya
(b) Whether the organisations which declared profits on June 3 have links to the BJP, India Today and Axis My India.
(c) Whether the same groups engaged in short selling on June 4, when the stock market crashed following the announcement of the election results.
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