Yi Ren Xiong, a 29-year-old nonprofit executive, has been an elected official in Wisconsin since he was a teenager. He hails from a north-central county known for its ginseng cultivation and downhill skiing and has served on the local school board, the Marathon County Commission and the village board of trustees in Weston, population 15,000.
But he’s a Democrat, and running for state representative in a solidly Republican district has always been a little outlandish.
Until this year.
After more than a decade of partisan bickering and legal battles, Wisconsin’s new congressional map was signed into law in February. The new map eliminates gerrymandering that has helped Republicans maintain control of both state legislatures since 2012. The 85th Congressional District in Marathon County, where Zion lives, is no longer a Republican-leaning seat and is a true toss-up.
“The idea became reality when the map changed,” Xiong said in an interview last month.
On Saturday, Zion announced his candidacy for the state Legislature, hoping to unseat Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Patrick Snyder, a popular candidate who just recently won reelection by more than 12 points.
The new Congressional map posed a particular challenge for Congressman Snyder. The congressman was disappointed to learn that he was a block and a half away from his district. He said he plans to rent a studio apartment in the newly drawn 85th ward.
“We’re going to step it up,” he said of the campaign. “We are very serious about retaining this seat.”
The state’s population has long been a close mix of Democrats and Republicans, making Wisconsin a key battleground state in presidential elections, with statewide races often intense. With the redrawing of the map, many legislative elections are also expected to suddenly return to the realm of true competition.
After more than a decade in the minority in the state Legislature, Democrats are now competing for political power with Republicans, who hold about two-thirds of the seats in the House and Senate.
“We are attacking,” said Democratic Rep. Greta Neubauer, the state House minority leader. “I definitely see a path to a majority.”
The new map, ordered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court in December after the previous map was ruled unconstitutional, reflects a near-polarization of districts that lean Democratic and Republican. 45 districts lean Democratic, 46 districts lean Republican, and 8 districts lean Republican. It becomes a toss-up.
Democrats would need to flip 15 seats to win a majority in the Legislature, but they do not think they will be able to win the state Senate, where elections are decentralized, this year.
With the fall election just over six months away, a scramble to take advantage of the new map is underway. Democratic officials have fielded dozens of inquiries from potential candidates running on the sidelines, people like Mr. Zion who are waiting for an opportunity to run but feel stuck because of gerrymandering. He said that it corresponds to Under the new map, the 85th Congressional District is split almost evenly between Democratic and Republican voters, putting it within Zion’s reach.
Republicans say they expect to lose seats under the new map but are fighting to keep as many seats as possible, including majority control.
In a typical election year, Congressman Snyder begins knocking on doors in August to talk to voters and encourage them to vote. This year it starts in July.
“I would expect a little more aggressive campaigning,” he said.
Democrats plan to hold fundraisers in every battleground district in the state and say they expect their campaign budget to be several times what they have spent in recent congressional races.
“We’re going to an area of the state that we haven’t been to in a while,” said Congressman Neubauer.
The electoral implications under the new map extend beyond the Wisconsin Legislature.
If Democrats succeed in increasing turnout, especially in emerging battleground states, it could help President Biden win re-election in Wisconsin.
Political groups across the country are paying attention, pledging funding. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee announced in February that it would double its investment in Wisconsin’s legislative races as part of a broader effort to reverse party control of the chamber in states such as Arizona, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Republican leaders suggested that the change in Wisconsin’s map would not change the administration and that the party would continue to see success in November. “Democrats have realized that Wisconsin’s consistent record of failure in recent election cycles at the state legislative level has nothing to do with maps and everything to do with policy issues beyond their control. “We’re starting to realize that,” Dee Duncan said. Chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee.
Wisconsin bipartisan organizations are also predicting a more heated campaign season, due in part to new district boundaries. More than 20% of Wisconsin voters believe their district will switch party representation in the fall election, according to an analysis by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
“I think we’re going to see a much more competitive race for voters,” said Debra Cronmiller, executive director of the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin. She said, “Under gerrymandering, there was often no challenge to the incumbent.”
Cronmiller said the federation plans to sponsor its own forums and candidate debates, adding that Rotary and Kiwanis clubs across the state will hold similar events more often than in recent election cycles. .
“I know candidates don’t appear in those rooms often,” she says. “We think they will do that because there will be other candidates competing with them.”
In Marathon County, Zion said he expects a fight for the congressional district he represents.
He described himself as a moderate Democrat who is a gun owner and fiscally conservative. If elected, Xiong, the son of immigrants from Laos and executive director of the Hmong American Center in Wausau, would be the first Hmong American to serve in the state Legislature.
He said he hopes the new congressional map will create a more level playing field and lead to elected Republicans and Democrats finding common ground.
“There will be competition and we will be forced to compromise,” Xiong said.
