This one question is why should Democrats replace Biden at their convention?

“Denial” is not just a river flowing through Egypt, its banks encircling the Biden White House and submerging it in a pool of illusion.

For much of the past two years, many people, including myself, have speculated that President Joe Biden should not or will not be the eventual Democratic presidential nominee in November. That number also included prominent liberals and Democrats who felt Biden’s time might be over, including David Axelrod and Ezra Klein. Ta.

Last November, Axelrod, a senior adviser to President Barack Obama and now a CNN analyst, suggested that Biden might want to withdraw from the race. Said Axelrod said of X: “Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the Democratic nominee. What he needs to decide is whether it is wise or not. Whether it’s in the interests of the United States or the interests of the country… there’s a lot of leadership talent in the Democratic Party that’s ready to emerge.”

“Democrats have better options than Biden,” Klein wrote in the New York Times on February 16, before retracting the article after Biden’s State of the Union address following massive criticism from the left. He published an audio opinion essay titled. ” It is a very logical and powerful work. Klain spoke out not because he dislikes Biden, but rather because he was trying to save the White House for Democrats in November.

Klein said, in part: “I think one of the reasons Democrats react so defensively to criticism of Biden is because they have a kind of fatalism. They believe it’s too late to do anything else. And if it’s too late to do anything else, talking about Biden’s age will help Donald Trump win. But it’s absurd.

And he concluded his thoughtful and pragmatic discussion with this: The party should help him find that path…and I think the Democrats should come together at their convention in August and do what political parties have been doing there so far: organize for victory. ”

Despite mounting speculation that Biden is no longer up to the task, the White House has remained steadfast, denying all and affirming that Biden will be the nominee. Indeed, nearly every discussion involving Mr. Alecrod and Mr. Klain folded around shared concerns about Mr. Biden’s advanced age and perceived perception issues.

But beyond these debates, three major vulnerabilities loom on Biden’s re-election horizon. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s populist independence movement. And perhaps the biggest threat to Biden’s re-election chances — he has become radioactive to the party’s far left.

Indeed, the Democrats who feel Biden has a responsibility to hold the White House have been drawn to Trump’s polling numbers, his huge base of support, increased fundraising, and a more locked-down and disciplined I am deeply concerned about his campaign. If you read between the lines of articles published by mainstream Democratic media outlets, it is clear that many of them are written with the assumption that Trump will be the winner.

Next, the problem with RFK Jr. is growing. He is a populist, appealing to all segments of the electorate, and with Nicole Shanahan announced as his running mate, he is almost guaranteed to win a majority of the state vote. The Democratic National Committee said it considers Kennedy a direct threat to Biden’s re-election bid. Unfortunately for them, RFK Jr. has proven to be the strongest and most resilient third-party candidate in the last 30 years.

But the threat Trump and Kennedy pose to Biden may fade compared to the last one. For far-left and young liberal voters, Biden is seen as yesterday’s news.

Almost no one is paying attention anymore, but the primary election was held last week. And hidden within those primary election vote counts was the most ominous news for Biden: the threat. In Wisconsin, Connecticut, and Rhode Island combined, more than 10 percent of Democrats voted “uncommitted” or for another candidate.

These “non-commitment” results come after far-left activists pressured voters to refrain from voting for Biden in protest of his handling of a number of issues, particularly the war between Israel and Hamas. Became. In Wisconsin, 48,000 Democrats voted “no instruction.” Over 17,000 more people voted for Dean Phillips…who is no longer in the race.

Wisconsin is a critical swing state, and these numbers should ring alarm bells for Democrats. The same horror movie hit the screens in Connecticut and Rhode Island. Nearly 12 percent of Connecticut Democrats voted “irresponsible.” In Rhode Island, it was 14.9 percent.

Biden and his Democratic Party cheerleaders in the media and elsewhere like to shout that Biden won 306 electoral votes in 2020, by more than 7 million votes. While that may fuel their false bravado, the reality is that if 50,000 votes had been reversed in some states, Biden would have lost.

While the Trump-Kennedy campaign is a clear threat to Biden’s reelection, it is now permanently turned against the president that makes Biden’s campaign unsustainable. A seemingly solid 10 percent of far-left and young Democratic voters who are “uncommitted.” This percentage is likely to increase in the coming months.

If that happens, Democrats will need to replace Biden at their convention in Chicago in August if they want to win in November.

Political and communications consultant Douglas McKinnon was a writer in the White Houses of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and served as special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration. served as