The Sunbelt boom is over

Last week, an inland hurricane derecho slammed into the Houston metropolitan area, causing deaths and billions of dollars in damage, blowing out windows in downtown high-rises and putting further pressure on the state’s struggling insurance system. With many insurers reluctant to remain in markets like Texas, where natural disasters devastate densely built-up environments throughout all four seasons, homeowners will once again face premium increases and policy cancellations. And rising premiums are just one of many reasons why the Sunbelt’s population growth may soon be coming to an end.

For years, abundant, affordable housing, low income taxes and endless sunshine have drawn Northeasterners and Midwesterners to the “Sun Belt,” a loose term for the southern U.S. region stretching from Florida in the east to Arizona in the west. The widespread availability and falling cost of indoor air conditioning also played a major role in the region’s growth. But a combination of disruptive weather caused by climate change, huge increases in home insurance premiums, housing shortages and political insanity is making parts of the Sun Belt much less livable than it was a decade ago.

While people may be enjoying relatively mild winters (except when freezing rains arrive and knock out the power grid for days), many are finding themselves essentially stuck inside their air-conditioned homes from April through October. Austin, long a popular destination for people looking to escape harsh winters but not sacrifice the cultural perks of blue city life, has recorded 80 days with high temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in 2023. Some projections suggest that by the end of the century, nearly half of the years will be above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, especially if residents continue to elect Republicans determined to thwart the transition to green energy. Meanwhile, the median home price in the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan area has nearly tripled since 2011.

These inflated prices are also accompanied by huge insurance premiums across the Sunbelt, making housing even more expensive than it appears at first glance. The state’s famously “business-friendly” environment has allowed insurance companies to essentially do whatever they want to their customers. The average premium in the state is now more than double the national average, and many insurers have left the market altogether. Many, like Texas Monthly writer Michael Hardy, struggle to get someone to insure their home, and when they do, they have to pay exorbitant premiums. This means hundreds or even thousands of dollars extra in mortgage payments each month. These costs are generally not taken into account in articles that still breathlessly tout Texas as a place with an ultra-low cost of living. This is not a new problem. The state created its own government-backed insurance company of last resort more than 20 years ago. This is not socialism at all. But it’s clearly getting worse.

And in states prone to hurricanes (especially Florida and the Gulf Coast) and/or tornadoes, this is a big deal. Thirty Florida insurers have either “liquidated” or voluntarily stopped underwriting insurance between 2020 and 2023, and others are considering withdrawing from the state or are not offering new insurance. So owning a home in certain parts of Florida means taking a very large, perhaps crushing, trust that someone will continue to insure you or that the state’s Republican Party can take a long enough break from vote suppression, pregnancy coercion, and transgender persecution to come up with a sustainable solution. And if you can’t afford to buy a home, good luck in Florida’s unaffordable rental market.

If this is the new normal, it is expected to get worse. A record 28 weather-related events occurred in 2023, causing at least $1 billion in damages, seven in Texas and two in Florida. Not only is climate change making weather more volatile and extreme, but the region’s growing population puts a lot more property at risk. This reality will undoubtedly increase insurance premiums everywhere, but large swaths of the Sunbelt will be hit the hardest. Other fast-growing regions, such as Phoenix, Arizona, may avoid hurricanes, tornadoes, and devastating cold snaps, but they face water shortages and increasingly long days when it’s hot enough outside that just walking barefoot on the sidewalk can send people to the emergency room with severe burns.

This goes without saying The Handmaid’s TaleCulture-war-obsessed politics have taken hold in much of the Sun Belt. Abortion is now banned or severely restricted in Texas, the Deep South, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and elsewhere. Democrats earlier this month repealed Arizona’s Civil War-era abortion ban, but the state is one step away from joining its Republican-elected Southern peers in imposing reproductive tyranny. Barely a week goes by without new anti-transgender legislation being passed by Sun Belt legislatures. And many Republicans are biding their time until a far-right Supreme Court eviscerates same-sex marriage protections and reimposes criminal records.Obergefell Don’t. Income tax cuts will only do so much to cushion the blow of this authoritarian shift.

That doesn’t sound like much fun to me, but, well, to each his own, but there’s really only one place in the country that has a government run by decent people, cheap housing, virtually unlimited water supplies, and summers that don’t burn the skin on the soles of your feet: the upper Midwest.

Please come again anytime.

David Faris is an associate professor of political science at Roosevelt University. It’s time to fight dirty: How Democrats can build a durable majority in American politics. His writings include: 1 week, The Washington Post, New Republic, Washington Monthly Etc. You can find him on Twitter at @davidmfaris.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.