The danger of lumping China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran together

There is a growing consensus that China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are seeking to align in a modern trilateral alliance, and calls for the United States to develop a grand strategy aimed at thwarting what is seen as a Eurasian coalition. is increasing.

The new narrative of a “hopeless alliance” between Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang and Tehran is reinforced by recent examples of cooperation. Iranian military leaders want to portray recent maritime exercises in the northern Indian Ocean, which China, Russia and Iran have dubbed a “maritime safety zone,” as a new collaboration. Meanwhile, North Korea has dispatched a high-level economic delegation to Iran and is working to strengthen ties with countries that oppose the United States, while Beijing is seeking economic and technological support from Russia to avoid U.S. sanctions. They are accused of providing a lifeline. North Korea and Iran also supply arms to Russia.

Although there may be ideological and strategic underpinnings for close ties between China, Moscow, North Korea, and Tehran, such as opposing the US-led order and excluding the US from its recognized sphere of influence, these There is little evidence that countries in the world are capable of building state systems. At least for now, it is capable of building a cohesive alternative world order or even conducting intricately coordinated military operations.

The main challenge for a potential alliance between China, Russia, North Korea and Iran lies in India’s role. Russia, North Korea and Iran see India as an essential power needed to counter US influence across Eurasia, while China, the dominant of the four, sees Delhi as a competitive power in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific. I see him as my opponent. Furthermore, in the event of an invasion of Taiwan, India could pose a second front problem for China, although evidence of this possibility is limited. Moscow, Tehran, and Delhi are all keenly aware that without Indian involvement, the viability of an anti-American Eurasian alliance is undermined.

Relations with China and Russia may help alleviate the isolation of North Korea and Iran, but the implications of labeling such relations as an “alliance” or “axis” and provoking a massive U.S. response is significant. That could strain U.S. resources and damage relationships with key nations such as India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. To avoid inadvertently increasing unity among China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, Washington and its foreign policy intellectuals have adopted a divide-and-conquer approach, within specific regions and on specific issues. We have to compete with other countries. Treating them as a unified coalition could encourage them to act as one.

Currently, the United States increasingly views the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, and several European countries as allies, and a Russia-China axis. However, the alliance’s dynamics face serious challenges with key countries such as India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Turkey increasingly resisting the concept of integrating Europe and the Indo-Pacific into a unified geopolitical stage. are doing. This resistance stems from strategic interests in maintaining flexibility and autonomy. More importantly, the coordination with Washington focuses on certain regions but not others, and certainly not the entire world.

In India’s case, Delhi is increasingly concerned about China and its ambitions in the Indian Ocean. India is open to working with Washington, which prioritizes the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, a point of convergence between India, the US, Japan and Australia based on national interests. However, Delhi has been clear that these partnerships should not become full-fledged alliances that expand their focus beyond the Indo-Pacific. This stance was evident when India abstained from a UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, citing the importance of Russia’s military equipment and energy.

India is not alone in aligning itself with the United States in competition with China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran. As the security situation worsens in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is keen to work with the United States and Israel to contain the Iranian threat. But Saudi Arabia, a major energy exporter to China and a key partner for Russia in setting global energy policy, has little incentive to convert a future defense deal with the United States into a comprehensive alliance. thinking. It rejects alliances that would require lower energy prices to hurt Russia’s economy or limit energy supplies to China if it invades Taiwan.

John Quincy Adams once famously said that America “does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy.” The close ties between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are undeniable and clearly have an impact on the Ukrainian battlefield. It also has the potential to ease the isolation of North Korea and Iran. However, they do not constitute an alliance or a monolithic threat.

As the center of economic and geopolitical power shifts to the Indo-Pacific, the United States has the necessary resources and partners to share the burden of a universal containment strategy against the United Eurasian Union, which includes China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. may not exist. In response to this new power structure in Eurasia, the United States will need to adjust its already strained strategic posture. Emulating Britain’s offshore balancer strategy during the Napoleonic Wars, the United States could pursue contested, geographically focused competition with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Such an approach would not only set clear guardrails around competition, but also foster strategic cooperation with key states such as India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Turkey on specific aspects of global competition.

Mohamed Soliman is director of the Middle East Institute, a member of McLarty Associates, and a visiting fellow at Third Way. About X: @ThisIsSoliman

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.