Welcome to the online edition From the Political Deskis an evening newsletter bringing you the latest coverage and analysis from the election campaign, the White House and Congress from the NBC News political team.
In today’s edition, Deputy Politics Editor Adam Wollner looks ahead to tonight’s Texas primary runoff elections, plus national political reporter Steve Kornacki analyzes polling results on how a guilty verdict in Donald Trump’s trial could change the 2024 presidential election.
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The battle for the future of the Republican Party comes to Texas
Adam Wallner
Texas is holding primary runoff elections today that will resolve intraparty disputes and shape the future of the Republican Party, traditionally a conservative stronghold.
If no candidate surpasses the 50% threshold in the March primary, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff election, with dozens of general election pairings to be officially decided after tonight.
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Republican House members face backlash from the right: So far, every member of Congress seeking reelection this term has won their primary, except for Alabama’s Republican primary, which pitted two incumbents against each other after redistricting. Republican Rep. Tony Gonzalez is hoping to keep his momentum going in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District against pro-gun control YouTuber Brandon Herrera, NBC News’ Alexandra Marquez reports.
Gonzalez has faced attacks from the right and has been denounced by state Republicans for voting in favor of new gun control laws in the wake of the 2022 elementary school shooting in Uvalde, his sprawling district on the U.S.-Mexico border, and for supporting same-sex marriage protections.
Herrera describes himself as a “gun rights advocate” and ally of former President Donald Trump, who did not endorse him in the primary. Gonzalez’s allies have criticized Herrera’s past comments about veteran suicide and Nazi machine guns. Gonzalez won 45% of the vote in the March election to Herrera’s 25%, but the race today is still expected to be close.
There are several other House primary runoffs worth noting, including a split Republican race to replace Rep. Kay Granger in Texas’ 12th District, with Gov. Greg Abbott endorsing state Rep. Craig Goldman and the state’s attorney general. Ken Paxton He is standing in line behind business owner John O’Shea.
And in the 28th District, retired Navy officer Jay Furman and rancher Lazaro Garza are vying for a chance to take on Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who was indicted this month on federal charges of bribery and money laundering and has denied any wrongdoing.
Paxton’s Revenge Tour: A lower-ranking candidate, Paxton, will be completing his primary revenge stunt by seeking to oust Republican state lawmakers who voted to impeach him last year.
His biggest target is one of Texas’ most influential Republicans, state Assembly Speaker Dade Phelan, who oversaw impeachment proceedings against Paxton on corruption charges. The state Assembly impeached Paxton but the state Senate refused to convict him or remove him from office.
Phelan now faces a primary challenge from conservative activist David Covey, who has touted the endorsements of Paxton and Trump, and won 46% of the vote in the March primary to Phelan’s 43%.
Phelan is one of eight Republican state legislators forced into runoff elections after nine lost their primaries two months ago, many of them over their opposition to Paxton or Abbott’s school voucher program, NBC News’ Jane C. Timm reported.
Another notable example is former Trump campaign spokeswoman Katrina Pierson, who is running against Republican state Rep. Justin Holland with the backing of Abbott and Paxton.
Polls suggest that convicting Trump would boost Biden’s approval rating. Here’s why that’s not a sure thing.
Steve Kornacki
Trump’s trial in Manhattan raises fundamental questions about how the verdict will affect the presidential election, or whether it will have any effect at all.
And national polls before the verdict seemed to offer a clear answer: An NBC News poll looked at this in February. In head-to-head contests, Trump was leading Joe Biden, 47% to 42%. But when voters were asked what they would do “if Donald Trump were convicted of a felony this year,” Biden led, 45% to 43%.
More recently, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll last week found Trump and Biden tied at 45% approval rating, but when voters were asked how they would react “if Trump was convicted in the hush-money case,” Biden took a 7-point lead, 46% to 39%.
A Marquette Law School poll this month split respondents into two groups: Biden led 43% to 39% when asked how they would vote “if Donald Trump is found guilty in a trial in New York,” while the other group supported Trump 44% to 38% when asked how they would vote “if Donald Trump is found not guilty in a trial in New York.”
So that’s settled, right?
Here’s an important caveat: All of these polls are based on hypothetical scenarios. Voters are asked how they would react to the possibility of a guilty or acquittal, but whether this is how they will actually respond to the verdict won’t be known until the verdict is announced.
After all, events don’t happen in a vacuum. The Trump ruling will likely spark fierce debate and major posturing from all sides. Absorbing all of this could shape (or reshape) how voters feel about the ruling. And while the ruling will dominate the news coverage, many other politically significant battles will also capture public attention between now and November, potentially diluting the impact of the case.
Recent history also needs to be considered. The past nine years have been a time of periodic outbursts of what was perceived as political toxicity around Trump. These were often accompanied by sharp poll drops, as seen with the release of the “Access Hollywood” tapes in 2016 and the January 6th riots in 2021. But in these and other instances, Trump’s approval ratings eventually returned to baseline.
Still, in a close election like this, even small changes in the polls can have a decisive effect, so if Trump is convicted and a small number of his supporters abandon his campaign and ultimately do not return, the impact could be profound.
But that’s a lot of “ifs.”
Read more about today’s closing arguments in the Trump trial →
That’s all from the Politics Desk. If you have any comments, please email us here. politicsnewsletters@nbcuni.com
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This article originally appeared on NBCNews.com.
