The 2024 UK election will significantly change British politics. Here’s what you need to know.

London – British voters head to the polls on Thursday to cast their ballot in the first general election since 2019. Here’s what you need to know.

Who will be running in the UK?

British voters will not directly choose a new leader on Thursday. In Britain’s parliamentary system, voters elect their local representatives to the House of Commons, the lower house of parliament.

On Thursday, 650 seats are up for grabs in the lower house, where one MP is sworn in. To have an outright majority in the lower house, a party needs to win at least 326 seats, or more than half of the total. The party that wins those seats will form the next government, and its leader will become prime minister. [Yes, King Charles III is Britain’s formal head of state. You can read here about what limited power that actually conveys.]

Parliament was formally dissolved on May 30 when Chancellor Rishi Sunak called a general election, as per normal procedure, but before that his long-time ruling Conservative Party held a majority of 345 seats and had considerable power to set the policy agenda.

In the UK, we have what is called a constituency system, where voters receive a ballot with a list of candidates from various parties and choose only one from it. The candidate who gets the most votes in each constituency wins the seat. There is no specific criteria required. So, for example, if there are six candidates in an election, all from different parties, and the candidate who gets the most votes only gets 25% of the total votes, he will still win the seat.

Voters can vote strategically if they think their favorite candidate is unlikely to win, and put an X next to another candidate’s name if they think he or she has a better chance of winning, effectively a second option. This tactic is commonly thought of as a way to help voters block candidates they consider highly unfavorable, but who have a good chance of winning, from winning a seat in an election.

In practice, this system means that a party can win a significant number of votes at the national level but not a proportional share of seats. Smaller British parties have long argued that the single-member constituency system helps to consolidate the power of Britain’s two largest parties: the incumbent right-wing Conservative Party (often referred to as the Tories) and its main rival, the left-wing Labour Party.

What is the timeline for the UK elections?

Voting in the UK general election began on Thursday morning, with results for most constituencies expected by early Friday morning, but results in more rural parts of the country may take longer, especially if votes are close or subject to recounts.

A joint exit poll by British broadcasters Sky News, ITV and CBS News partner network BBC News is usually released shortly after voting closes, providing an early indication of the overall outcome of a UK general election.

Exit polls generally accurately reflect the final results, which are expected to be released by approximately 10 p.m. local time Thursday (5 p.m. Eastern Time).

UK election forecasts and polling data

Polls and political analysts have been predicting for weeks that Labour will win a huge majority in Parliament, and if the latest polling data is accurate, Britons will see a new party lead the country for the first time in 14 years on Friday morning, ending Conservative Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s 18-month term in power.

14 years of Conservative government Political and Economic turmoilIn the past eight years alone, 10 Downing Street has seen five Conservative prime ministers rotate through the helm.

The latest poll by YouGov, a leading independent data and analysis group, puts Labour in the lead by 17 points, with 37% of respondents intending to vote Labour and 20% saying they would vote Conservative.

Labour candidates are expected to win up to 425 seats in the House of Commons, which would represent a significant gain of 223 seats for the party. The Conservatives are expected to only retain 108 seats, which would represent a significant loss of 257 seats.

Who is Keir Starmer, the candidate to become the next Prime Minister?

Keir Starmer was elected leader of the Labour Party by its members shortly after the 2020 general election, which saw the party suffer its worst defeat in 85 years. He immediately declared his mission to make the party “election-winnable” again.

Four years from now, Starmer, 61, will become Britain’s chief executive.

He has frequently been criticised for lacking charisma, but his efforts to bring Labour back to the centre of British politics and win the support of a wider range of voters appear to be paying off.

During his term as leader, Starmer has systematically removed the far-left, socialist-leaning wing of the Labour Party that ran the party under former leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Starmer’s deliberate shift from socialism to centrism has been criticised by some left-leaning commentators and voters, and it may cost Labour votes to smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, but opinion polls show it has been a winning strategy overall.

Is Britain bucking the trend of Europe moving to the right?

Far-right parties have risen across the continent in recent years, and a move to a centre-left Labour government in Britain would buck the European trend.

Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigration National Rally party came close to becoming France’s largest party in the first round of French parliamentary elections on Sunday. received one-third of the votes The first round of voting recorded the highest number of votes in history.

If voters maintain this trend in the decisive second round on July 7, It would mark an unprecedented shift to the right. For the French.

Last month European Parliament Elections Far-right politicians also won more seats than ever before, with right-wing candidates in Europe’s three largest economies – Italy, France and Germany – making gains on issues such as opposition to: ImmigrationSupport for Ukraine Green Environmental Policy.

Labour’s victory would buck the political trend on the continent, but the election also saw a surge in support for far-right candidates in Britain.

Nigel Farage may be well known to Americans, but Ally of former President Donald TrumpHis extreme anti-immigration rhetoric has led to the UK “Brexit” from the European Union.

Farage has failed to win a parliamentary seat despite eight previous attempts and has spent decades languishing on the far right of British politics, but this year he is finally set to win a seat in his home constituency of Clacton in southeast England.

Farage’s far-right Reform Party The Reform Party is predicted to win only around five seats in Parliament total, including Farage’s own, but YouGov predicts that nationally support for the Reform Party will be around 15% of the electorate – a significant increase in the party’s popularity given its current zero seats in the House of Commons.

Political analysts say the Reform Party’s anti-immigration message is significantly eroding the Conservative Party’s vote share.

So while Farage is unlikely to take power anytime soon, he appears poised to re-enter British politics – and with significant public support, he could wield outsized influence over Conservative politics as the party tries to rebuild after what could be a disastrous election.

CBS News’ Frank Andrews contributed to this report.