Should US President Joe Biden follow Republican nominee Donald Trump’s lead and tout the performance of the S&P 500 index? According to a Harris Guardian poll, 49% of Americans believe stocks will fall in 2024. In reality, the S&P 500 index is at an all-time high, up 12% this year (the best start ever for an election year) and up 28% in the past 12 months.
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Americans are misinformed in other areas too: Nearly half believe the unemployment rate is at a 50-year high, even though it’s below 4 percent and near a 50-year low. More than half believe the U.S. is in a recession.
Republican supporters (67%) are particularly likely to think this way, but many Democrats (49%) also feel the same way.
Typically, the stock market predicts elections, and when stocks do well, incumbent presidents tend to win. But given that many investors seem oblivious to the growing economy and bull market in stocks, could 2024 be different?
Trump’s constant bragging about the stock market’s rise during his presidency was both infuriating (the president’s impact on stock performance was negligible) and dangerous (if he took credit when stocks rose, he could be blamed when they fell). Still, the polls are worrying for Biden, and he may need to brag about the stock market himself.
