8 minutes ago
Capital Economics expects five months of stock market gains to accelerate consumer spending
London-based Capital Economics said U.S. consumer spending is expected to rise at least modestly as household wealth recovers due to stock market gains and rising home prices.
“The continued rise in the stock market that we forecast is due to the fact that household net worth as a percentage of income is at a record high, providing a tailwind for consumption growth,” Chief Deputy U.S. Economist Andrew Hunter said Thursday. There is a high possibility that it will.”
U.S. household stock holdings increased by $7 trillion in the first quarter, Hunter said, and total household net worth, including home prices, increased by $8.5 trillion. The research firm predicts that household wealth will increase by an additional $20 trillion by the end of 2025 “due to AI-driven bubble inflation” and that home prices will rise an additional 6% by the end of next year.
Additional spending from households feeling wealthier is more likely to stimulate consumer spending rather than lead to a major economic recovery, the company said. “We think rising household wealth is likely to underpin a gradual acceleration in consumption growth in 2025-2026, rather than driving a sudden boom,” Hunter said. .
— Scott Schnipper
19 minutes ago
Here’s what investors should watch for in Friday’s key jobs report
March’s employment report is expected to be strong as the Labor Department releases its employment report on Friday morning.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expect employers to add 200,000 jobs last month, which would mark a slowdown from February’s 275,000 job gains.
While job growth is a key focus area for Wall Street, traders will look at the Labor Department’s report to see revisions to past payroll statistics. In its February fiscal year, federal agencies announced significant downward revisions to December and January payroll statistics.
Investors and the Federal Reserve will also be watching wage growth. Economists expect average hourly wages to rise 0.3% in March. This is an increase from February’s 0.1% rise.
For more information on the upcoming jobs report, read CNBC’s Jeff Cox.
–Darla Mercado
30 minutes ago
Investor bullishness remains above average for 22 consecutive weeks in latest AAII survey
Investor optimism about the outlook has declined in the latest weekly poll from the American Association of Individual Investors, but remains above the historical average for the 22nd straight week, coinciding with the start of the current bull market.
Bullish responses fell to 47.3% from 50.0% last week, compared to the historical average of 37.5%.
Bearish views on the outlook for stock prices have been below the historical average for the 22nd consecutive week, dropping to 22.24% from 22.4% last week, compared to the historical average of 31%. Neutral sentiment rose from his 27.6% to 30.5%, falling below his 31.5% all-time average for the eighth time in the past 10 weeks.
Sentiment indicators are used as contrarian signals. When the bullish outlook becomes too extreme, it is taken as a sign that optimists have done most of their buying and there is little money left to enter the market. Conversely, extreme bearish indicators may indicate that most of the selling has been completed and there is a large amount of cash available to buy the stock.
— Scott Schnipper
50 minutes ago
Stocks heading for a down week
With only Friday’s trading remaining in the trading week, the three major indexes have recorded notable declines.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen about 3% so far, on pace for its worst week since March 2023. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each fell about 2%.
— Alex Harring
59 minutes ago
Dow futures are almost unchanged
Dow futures were trading slightly more than flat just after 6 p.m. ET. Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each rose about 0.1%.
— Alex Harring
