HDFC BK Review
jeffries
TP increases to 1880 Rupees when purchased.
Q4 profit was lower than expected at Rs 1,650 crore, but PPOP inline and adjusted. One-time EPS was Rs 21 and ROA was 1.9%.
Key +ve was a slight increase in NIM
Deposit growth was strong at 17% (merger-adjusted), but loan growth lagged at 12%.
M.S.
OW, TP Rs 1900
Strong rebound in LCR (+5 percentage points QoQ) and margin improvement (+4 bps QoQ) were the main highlights.
The fee income was + very surprising.
PBT one-off inline
Headline PAT fails to achieve MSe due to one-time personnel costs and higher variable provisions
MOSL
Purchase, TP Rs 1950
Core performance is the same.Profit margin improved quarter on quarter
Carefully deploy one-time gains to increase volatility reserves
Adjustment PAT inline. CD ratio and liquidity coverage ratio improved
From FY24 to FY26, BK is estimated to achieve a CAGR of 13.5%/18% in loans/deposits
ICICI section
Upgrade from “Add” to “Purchase”
TP remains unchanged at 1850 rupees
Strong reported and adjusted ROA
Estimating reratings in stages based on sustained growth in deposits
Significantly reduced borrowings, down 10% from the previous quarter
NIM rose 3-4 bps QoQ
LCR increase: 115% vs. 110% QoQ
Good reported ROA (1.96%) and adjusted ROA (1.88%)
Banks have widely used large financial profits and tax write-offs for variable provisions and employee rewards.
Estimated deposit CAGR of up to 18%, implying market share growth of up to 15%
Loan growth rate (FY2025-26) forecast lowered to below 13%
LDR improved to 100%/96% by FY25/26
Expected EPS will be reduced by 5% for both FY2025/2026, mainly due to lower growth forecasts
Estbank is expected to achieve a healthy ROA of around 1.7% with an ROE of 14%-15% in FY25/26
wipro review
J.P.M.
Neutral, TP Rs 480
4Q mixed with inline rev, margin beat but soft guide.
New CEO highlights five focus areas, suggesting focus will be on execution rather than strategic review
Profit margin was strong, expanding by 40 bps in the fourth quarter due to operational efficiency improvements
Nomura
Price reduction, TP Rs 410
No major changes under the new CEO
Guidance for Q1 FY25 reflects weak discretionary power
Results for the fourth quarter of 2024 were broadly in line with expectations.
Discretionary demand remains weak, Capco makes some comeback, outlook for Q1 2025 is weak
HSBC
Price reduction, TP Rs 385
Q4 was also weak and outlook for Q1 FY25 is subdued as Co continues to lose market share
Promotion of internal veteran to CEO looks positive, but growth acceleration doesn’t seem imminent and cost reductions continue
M.S.
WA, TP price reduced to Rs 421
4Q24 revenue was in line with MSe, but the outlook for 1Q was weak.
Comments suggest stabilization in the BFSI industry, but there is limited clarity on the pace of recovery
UBS
Sales, TP Rs 430
Management’s optimism last quarter regarding the return of Capco’s order-based consulting led to modest growth, but not enough to drive overall revenue growth
Additionally, weak guidance for Q1 FY25 suggests a revival is still some time away.
Master’s Degree in Ultratech Cement
Overweight call, target Rs 11,600
Announces plans to purchase 1.1 meter crushing unit from India Cements for Rs 315.
The grinding unit is located in Palli, Maharashtra and also includes a dedicated railway siding
The company also plans to expand its 1.8 million tonne brownfield development in Dhule, Maharashtra.
Expansion costs total approximately 500 Cr and will be covered by internal accruals.
We believe that these announcements will further strengthen the company’s presence in Maharashtra.
Voltas UBS
Upgrade and buy
Target raised from Rs 885 to Rs 1,800
Believe will surprise market share in room air conditioner sector
The company’s market share is expected to reach 23% in FY26 and consensus is 19.5%.
Voltbek JV also needs to continue gaining market share
Voltbek joint venture should increase profitability with breakeven point in FY26
Expected increase of 10,000 rupees, or 60% of sales of household appliances, by FY2027
EPS for FY24-26 is expected to increase by 4-31%, and revenue/EBITDA CAGR is expected to be 20%/28% compared to FY23-26.
Mr. Nomura about GSPL
Downgrade and reduce, TP cut to Rs 320
PNGRB has slashed GSPL’s high voltage transmission tariff by 47% to INR 0.7/scm.
Permit fees are significantly lower than Street expectations.
Significantly reduce EBITDA by 37%/42% and EPS by 34%/40% for FY25-26
Kotak Inst Eqt for GSPL
Downgrade to lower price, TP Rs 330
PNGRB slashes its HP network by 47% to 18.1 rupees/mmbtu
The approved tariff is 64% lower compared to the Rs51/mmbtu tariff sought by GSPL.
GSPL is expected to challenge this order
47% tariff reduction will reduce revenue by 28%/37% in 2025/26E
