S&P 500, Nasdaq 100
The excitement of new highs for NVIDIA and Apple and the positive effect it has had on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is being tempered by the broader underlying indexes.
Here’s the situation: Sentiment is leaning very bullishly due to the high weightings in these two stocks (and a few others), but other components of these indexes are less optimistic.
7 Stock Market Charts.
Here is a daily price chart of the S&P 500:
S&P 500 daily price chart, 6 13 204.
This week’s new highs are circled in red. The index continues to trade above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A fantastic rally from October 2023 to present.
Okay, but here’s a daily chart of the S&P 500’s “New Highs/New Lows Percent” that tells a different story.
S&P 500 new highs-new lows percent, 6 13 24.
The percentage of S&P 500 stocks making new highs and new lows as the S&P 500 reaches its highest price this week.
Here is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks currently exhibiting a “bullish point and figure” pattern:
$BPSPX 6 13 24.
The breadth indicator is another indicator that has failed to achieve new highs here like the S&P 500. The negative divergence is similar to the new high/new low percent chart and confirms a fundamental issue with a different methodology.
Now, here is the daily price chart of the Nasdaq 100.
Nasdaq 100 daily price chart, 6 13 24.
This week’s highest price is circled in red. Notice that the index is steadily trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are trending upwards.
Below is the daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 “New Highs, New Lows Percentage.”
Nasdaq 100 new highs-new lows percent, 6 13 24.
The big gains in component stock Apple have pushed this breadth measure to higher levels than in mid-May, but it remains below the highs of January, February and March — another negative deviation that shows how participation is declining.
Here are the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percentage Index:
Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index, 6 13 24.
The percentage of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index that are in bullish point-and-figure patterns is currently lower than at its mid-May high and significantly lower than at its late December 2023 high. As the Nasdaq 100 Index has risen, fewer and fewer constituent stocks are participating. The high weighting of several large technology and social media companies has been problematic.
One more thing, below is the daily price chart for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF.
iShares Russell 2000 ETF daily price chart, 6 13 24.
Small caps have refused to reach new highs along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. They failed to surpass their May highs this week, and failed to surpass their late March highs, another negative deviation.
How long will the outperformance of Apple, NVIDIA and a few others continue while the rest of the market resists? I don’t know.