“I think Chuck Schumer is in a unique position,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), one of Biden’s staunchest supporters in the Senate, said when asked if he thought Schumer wanted Biden to continue the campaign. “He’s the only Senate Democrat who is committed to maintaining the majority in November. In my opinion, those two things are not mutually exclusive. … Chuck Schumer might think a little bit differently.”
A naturally cautious leader, Mr. Schumer made no public comments after Mr. Biden’s news conference and, unlike House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, did not visit the White House to personally deliver a message to the president about where his party stands. But there are signs that Mr. Schumer’s tone is shifting as time passes and Mr. Biden’s political crisis continues.
At a private lunch on Tuesday, two of Schumer’s weakest incumbents seeking reelection, Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.), bluntly told their caucus that Biden would lose to former President Donald Trump, according to three people familiar with the meeting. One senator noted that even if every Democratic incumbent won their tough races, the Senate would only be 50-50, giving Republicans a victory. If Biden is ousted from the White House, they will have a majority.
“President Biden’s poor performance in the debate has raised serious doubts about whether he can handle the job for another four years,” Tester said in a statement after the meeting. “He must prove to the American people, and to me, that he can do it.”
Still, Schumer is urging senators to be cautious and refrain from attacking as he leads them through a politically dangerous moment with an uncertain outcome. But he is also incorporating public and private polling and data that shows Biden’s influence in key battleground state Senate races, according to a person familiar with his thinking. That has given some senators, and some donors, the impression that the majority leader is leaving himself open to a top nominee change.
Schumer is a skilled fundraiser who helped build and maintain the Democratic majority in the Senate. Now he must figure out how to hold onto that majority, or hold onto it as long as possible. Senate Democrats and their opponents are wary of being undercut by Biden in key states where they are already outperforming him.
Democratic senators have not made it clear where Schumer stands on the party’s future direction. Senators say he has been mostly in listening mode. The normally press-friendly politician has also avoided the spotlight on Biden’s fate, finding himself in the uncomfortable position of no longer working closely with a president with whom he’s worked closely over the past four years to pass an ambitious liberal legislative agenda.
“In a complex situation like this, he’s not inclined to take a bold position and try to persuade senators to follow,” said Matt House, a former aide to Schumer. “He listens carefully, encourages debate and prioritizes unity wherever possible.”
Schumer’s top priority is protecting the five Democratic senators up for reelection, which is why he’s been cautious about moving too quickly against Biden, people close to him said. In the days after the debate, when Democrats began floating the idea of ​​replacing Biden with Vice President Harris, Schumer urged senators to wait for more data before reacting publicly.
“It’s a more complicated calculus for him because he has to balance whether the top nominee is Biden or Harris, and then he has to look at it race by race,” said one person close to Senate leadership, who, like others in the article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. “He wants the benefit of clarity, not battlefield chaos.”
According to three people familiar with Schumer’s thinking, after the debate Schumer was presented with data showing Biden’s electoral vote tally would fall to 270.
But it will take more time to get enough information from battleground states to analyze how the dramatic step of changing presidential candidate endorsements four months before the election will affect sitting senators in different states.
Christy Roberts, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Bloomberg News that internal data since the debate shows the Senate race has “stabilized or moved a little in our direction over the last two weeks,” suggesting voters are willing to split their votes between the presidential and Senate races.
Two people close to Senate leadership said early data suggested senators in Montana, Ohio and Nevada would not benefit from Harris running as the top candidate rather than Biden, but the political situation is highly fluid and the full picture will take time to emerge.
“I don’t think it would do him any good to do anything now that would exacerbate the panic,” said another person who is in frequent contact with senators and aides.
Biden, the Senate Majority Leader, is in frequent contact with White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and adviser Steve Ricchetti, but has only spoken directly with the president once since the debate, according to people familiar with the matter. Democrats complained about the lack of communication from Bidenworld immediately after the debate, but communication is increasing. There is a sense that the White House and Biden’s inner circle are too disconnected from reality, House Democrats said.
Biden has also made it clear that only hard data, not the opinions of Democrats, would persuade him to drop out of the race, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware), his campaign co-chair, told colleagues, and Democrats acknowledge that ultimately the decision to drop out is Biden’s to make.
Biden said at a news conference that he would only withdraw if the data showed he had “no chance of winning.”
“They’re not saying that,” Biden said. “No poll says that.”
So far, only Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vermont) has called on Biden to step down, but several senators and aides said a majority of the caucus is concerned the president won’t win in 2024.
As donors and senators bombard him with their concerns, Schumer has urged them to contact the White House directly rather than act as a conduit for them, according to two people familiar with the meetings.
Donors are more focused on Schumer’s fight to protect his slim majority, where he is spending big money. Frustrated and angry that Biden is out, big donors are sitting back, hoping to pressure the president to drop out of the race, said several people in charge of raising big campaign funds. Donor anxiety has spread to at least one Senate campaign and American Bridge 21st Century, an anti-Trump super PAC, both of which have been affected by fundraising freezes, two people familiar with the fundraising said.
Schumer, who has raised hundreds of millions of dollars to win the Senate race, has at times appeared to echo the concerns of donors, some of whom believe the majority leader is open to replacing top candidates, Axios reported.
“As I have repeatedly made clear both publicly and privately, I support President Biden and remain committed to defeating Donald Trump in November,” Schumer said in a statement this week.
A Democratic National Committee official familiar with the Senate race said several big donors have signaled they are increasing their giving to Senate Democrats and sent new six-figure contributions. One big donor increased his support for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee by 50 percent after the debate, this person said. The increase was motivated in part by the Supreme Court’s decision on presidential immunity and the Senate’s role in confirming Supreme Court justices.
Schumer invited Biden campaign officials Ricchetti, Mike Donilon and Jen O’Malley Dillon to speak with angry senators and air their concerns directly to the campaign’s inner circle. During a tense meeting on Thursday, several senators expressed deep concern that Biden could cripple Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate.
“It’s really the polls that are driving this debate,” said one national Democratic official. “Chuck is leaning toward a position that makes it clear to Biden what his issues are.”
Paul Kane contributed to this report.
