The prospect that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would threaten to overturn the presidential election went from idea to reality Thursday in one of the country’s most important battlegrounds, where Kennedy qualified to vote in Michigan. It changed to
The Natural Law Party’s decision to give Kennedy a spot on the ballot in November is expected to make the presidential election extremely close, with President Biden already showing vulnerability to key Democratic constituencies in a pivotal election. It is certain that he will be a factor in the battleground states. . In February’s Michigan primary, protests over Biden’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza gained significant support.
Kennedy, a lifelong Democrat and the scion of perhaps the nation’s most famous Democratic family, is running as an independent in 2024, making him the first self-funded candidate since self-funded billionaire Ross Perot, according to early research. He has received more support than any other third-party candidate. 1990s.
His independent candidacy has also alienated his own family, who campaigned with Biden in Pennsylvania this week, and many of his former colleagues in the environmental movement, who publicly denounced his candidacy on Friday. There is.
Kennedy has emerged as a leading voice for vaccine skepticism both before and after the coronavirus vaccination, and has dabbled in conspiracy theories, including the assassination of his father, Robert F. Kennedy. He initially declared his 2024 campaign as a Democratic challenger to Biden and was heavily featured in conservative media before switching to running as an independent last fall.
Both parties are already rushing to define Mr. Kennedy for a national vote.
Rhys Smith, a Democratic strategist who works with the Democratic National Committee, said Democrats are worried about how “extreme his positions are and how he has been scouted as a candidate by Trump supporters and is one of Trump’s biggest “We’re working to make sure voters know that this campaign is a donor-funded campaign spoiler.” President Trump in November. ” Timothy Mellon, the reclusive banking heir, gave $15 million to a pro-Trump super PAC and $20 million to a pro-Kennedy super PAC.
But there are also concerns on the right that, given some of Mr. Kennedy’s anti-establishment messages, he could siphon supporters from presumptive Republican nominee Donald J. Trump.
Trump adviser Brian Hughes called Kennedy “a left-wing liberal with a history of supporting extreme environmental policies that rival Joe Biden in their ability to destroy American jobs.”
Operation Biden takes the threat from Kennedy seriously, inviting a group of Kennedy family members to the White House on St. Patrick’s Day and holding an event in Philadelphia on Thursday, including six of Kennedy’s siblings. Kennedy’s relatives, including Mr. Kennedy, are in attendance. , expressed his support in support of the president.
Kennedy’s eldest brother, former Democratic congressman Joseph P. Kennedy II from Massachusetts, said in an interview that “there is no way anything can be done to take away a single vote from President Biden.” “Democrats would be heartbroken if they put Kennedy’s name on the ballot.”
Mr. Kennedy will host a comedy show in a Detroit suburb Sunday to celebrate Michigan’s right to vote, his campaign said in a fundraising message. The event will be headlined by Hollywood comedian Rob Schneider, who has questioned the safety of vaccines. Kennedy’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Some Michigan Democrats want Kennedy on the ballot, given the close margin, his famous name and Biden’s struggle to reunite the coalition that carried him to victory in 2020. expressed concern that it exists.
“In a very close race, thousands of votes could decide the outcome,” said Congressman Shri Sanedar, who represents a Detroit-area district. “There is already some dissatisfaction among Muslim Americans. There is also dissatisfaction among African American voters. So this is very important.”
“The more voters know about RFK Jr., the less likely they are to support him,” Smith said.
Hughes noted that it is the Democratic Party that is “using financial and legal resources to prevent candidates from accessing the ballot.”
“I am confident that whoever appears on the ballot will win the support of voters,” he said.
Public opinion is divided on how Kennedy will change the campaign.
A series of Fox News polls in battleground states show that, like other third-party candidates, his selection would be favorable for Trump, favorable for Biden, and sometimes neutral. It was shown that there were cases.
A Fox News poll in Michigan showed Kennedy with a 9% lead, Trump with 42% and Biden with 40%. Two other third-party candidates, independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, had support ratings of 2%. In a head-to-head race against Biden in the state, Trump led 49% to 46%.
Even how to track Mr. Kennedy’s popularity is the subject of intense debate, as pollsters seek ways to avoid inflating or underestimating his support, with different methods yielding different results. .
Michigan is the first battleground state in which Mr. Kennedy has voted, and after recent close races, tens of millions of dollars are expected to be spent in the state in 2024. Trump won the state by just 10,704 votes in 2016, but Biden returned to the Democratic field in 2020 by about 154,000 votes.
It’s also the state that exposed some of the deepest divisions within the Democratic Party over Israel, Hamas, the invasion of Gaza and Biden’s handling of the conflict.
In Michigan’s Democratic primary, a protest campaign urging voters to vote for “uncommitted” lawmakers garnered 13% of the vote, enough to win two delegates to the party’s national convention. The movement attracted support from young voters, progressives, and influential Arab Americans and Muslims in the state, particularly in Dearborn.
In interviews during the primary, many voters said they planned to sit out the election or vote for a third-party candidate instead of Trump or Biden.
But Mr. Kennedy may not be the ideal candidate to take advantage of these disaffected Democrats.
He has taken more hawkish pro-Israel positions, which, if widely known, could make it difficult for him to capitalize on anti-Biden sentiment in the Arab-American community. In an interview in late 2023, Kennedy said, “The Palestinian people are probably the most pampered people by international aid agencies,” and more recently described Israel as a “moral nation.”
“Frankly, RFK is someone who is not welcome in Michigan,” said Abbas Allawi, a former Democratic official at the state Capitol who helped lead the state’s “Listening Michigan Protests” movement. Ta. “His campaign is a vanity project. He is no friend of our movement.”
A recent Wall Street Journal poll of battleground states showed Trump with a 3-point lead in a head-to-head battle with Biden in Michigan, and a 2-point lead if Kennedy was included in the poll. did.
“Third parties can always go both ways,” said Stu Sandler, a Republican strategist who has worked extensively in Michigan. “RFK does a little bit of good for a lot of voters.” “It certainly seems like this is going to help President Trump at this point. Especially when you look at areas like Dearborn, there are a lot of Biden voters who are dissatisfied with Biden’s support for Israel.”
Michigan Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens said the Biden campaign should remain focused on Trump and suggested efforts to attack Kennedy could boost his campaign.
But he also said that Democrats cannot “completely ignore” him.
“I’m interested to see if he sets up a business in Michigan and if he raises enough money to sell a campaign in Michigan,” Stevens said. “And frankly, it’s unclear who he’s really trying to take from.”
For now, the Kennedy campaign is focused on getting voters on the ballot in more states.
Last month, he nominated Nicole Shanahan, a lawyer and wealthy ex-wife of one of Google’s co-founders, as his running mate. She is expected to immediately pump $2 million into her campaign and help Mr. Kennedy with the expensive and difficult task of getting people to the polls across the country.
