Meanwhile, Americans are opposed to sending Trump to prison for these crimes — and many even support a conviction.
Meanwhile, polls suggest a prison sentence could alienate more voters from him than a mere guilty plea.
So while a prison sentence may help convince the American public of the seriousness of Trump’s crimes, it may also lead them to decide that it is excessive.
Two post-verdict investigations found that Trump should not do It is better to say he should go to prison than to say he should go to jail.
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 51 percent of Americans oppose prison time, while 46 percent disapprove.
- A CBS News/YouGov poll found that 45% of Americans oppose it, while 38% are opposed.
A significant number of Americans who support the Manhattan trial feel this way. For example, a CBS poll found that 56 percent of Americans said the trial was fair, 57 percent said the verdict was just, and 43 percent said the sentence was just. This means that while Americans have double-digit confidence in the trial and the outcome, they still tend to be opposed to prison sentences.
Trump was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records as part of an illegal attempt to influence the 2016 election. The charges are felonies punishable by 16 months to four years in prison. Experts seem to generally agree that, given that these are the least serious felonies in New York state and that Trump has no prior convictions, he is unlikely to face incarceration. However, Trump’s post-conviction behavior, including his apparent lack of remorse and possible violations of a gag order that is still in effect, could work against him.
The lack of support for prison sentences is particularly noteworthy, given that Americans have historically shown positive attitudes toward them.
The same Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted in January, asked Americans whether Trump should be jailed if convicted of either case. 71% of Americans at least “somewhat” agreed, and 53% “strongly” agreed. But today, just 46% say imprisonment is justified in this particular case.
That may reflect the perceived seriousness of Trump’s crimes: The January question didn’t ask about specific incidents, and Americans have long viewed the Manhattan charges as less serious than Trump’s other three indictments.
The big question in this case is how Americans will react if prison time is handed down.
Polls have shown that prison sentences could, in theory, alienate even more voters.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in April found President Biden would have a two-point advantage over Trump if Trump were convicted, but VI If Trump were “currently serving time,” his approval rating would rise by 10 points. Only 9% of Trump supporters said they would abandon their support if he were convicted, but twice as many, 20%, said they would abandon their support if Trump was in prison.
A new Reuters poll bears this out: 54% of registered voters said they would not vote for a convicted Trump, while 58% said they would not vote for a jailed Trump. The percentage of Republicans who say they do not approve of Trump rose from 14% to 23%.
But it seems that if They agree that the result is just. Americans may decide that a prison sentence is not justified in this particular case.
Fewer than 4 in 10 Americans say they don’t believe claims that Trump was politically targeted or that the trial was unfair, though other polls have shown growing suspicions that politics played a role in the prosecution, meaning the prison sentence could be a test of how far Americans have gone in the trial.
The data so far is not necessarily right Some people are opposed to these trials: a CBS poll showed that nearly one in five Americans are reserving judgment, and a Reuters poll showed a slight majority opposed prison. Because so few Americans are paying close attention to the trials — 35 percent in the CBS poll and just 19 percent in the Reuters poll — it seems possible that people might be convinced that prison is justified.
But these polls underscore just how dangerous July 11 will be, and how New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Marchan’s sentencing decision could impact the four months leading up to Election Day.
