A poll by CBS News and YouGov showed that Arizona and Florida have a significant lead in enshrining the right to abortion in their state constitutions. Arizona leads 65% to 21%, and Florida leads 60% to 20%. Previous polls in Florida also showed voters supporting the Abortion Rights Amendment by wide margins, with one poll showing a 21-point margin and another polling a 30-point margin. Ta.
Florida’s bill is expected to appear on the ballot. Arizona’s plan is still a work in progress, but organizers say they have enough signatures to make it happen. Other states are expected to take similar measures, but Arizona and Florida are the biggest.
The latest polls show that not only do voters overwhelmingly support the amendment; republican party It was 43-38 in their favor at Arizona State and 43-34 at Florida State.
This 60% figure for the entire state of Florida is noteworthy. Because this is the standard for passing the state. This is a higher standard than most states.
It is also noteworthy because it suggests the possibility of even more widespread affirmation of the right to abortion.
Abortion rights positions are winning more votes from Republican-leaning voters, but to varying degrees. A good way to look at this is to look at how they performed compared to the 2020 presidential vote.
What was the best relative performance of the Abortion Rights Amendment so far? The latest one. Last year, Biden won 11.6 points more votes in Ohio than he did in 2020. In 2020, Biden received 45% of the vote, while the Abortion Rights Amendment received 57%.
Average overperformance of the four states: 8 points.
New polls in Arizona and Florida show support for the amendment already lowers Biden’s 2020 approval rating in those states by 16 points each, despite significant numbers of undecided voters. It is shown that this is 12 points higher.
In some states, Biden outperformed the four states listed above on abortion rights: Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana. But importantly, these states have not directly voted to enact abortion rights.
Montana’s action concerned infants born after unsuccessful abortions. Measures in Kansas and Kentucky asked voters to affirmatively state in their state constitutions that: did not do it Defend the right to abortion. In these last two states, the measure beat Biden by 17 and 16 points, respectively, the largest overperformance to date.
And it may be beneficial.
These were situations where voters were effectively being asked to take away rights rather than add to them.
In fact, what distinguishes Arizona and Florida from the four states that have so far voted to enact abortion rights is the extent to which these states have curtailed abortion rights.
Florida’s Supreme Court last month gave the green light to the state’s six-week abortion ban, but even former President Donald Trump sought to distance himself from it. And last month, the Arizona Supreme Court reinstated a harsh 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions, including those resulting from rape and incest, and imposes prison sentences of two to five years for aborted abortions. (This caused panic in Republican circles and ultimately led to the law’s repeal. The 15-week ban remains in place.)
This created a situation where voters could effectively treat the Abortion Rights Amendment as a referendum on harsh Republican-backed legislation, giving them an opportunity to air their dissatisfaction. For example, according to the same YouGov poll, 72 percent of Arizona voters support overturning the 1864 law.
Or at least the dangers of allowing your own representatives to restrict abortion rights are more real than for voters in California, Michigan, Vermont, and Ohio, where similar laws are not in place. there is a possibility.
It is this dynamic that makes the potentially resonant votes in Florida and Arizona particularly important for the future of abortion rights in the United States.
