Contrary to the hopes of Hamas leaders, Iran did not launch its own all-out war after October 7, but Iranian proxies in Hezbollah launched a steady barrage of rockets and missiles from southern Lebanon toward northern Israel. Shooting began, and approximately 60,000 Israelis were forced to leave. their home. The Houthis, another Iranian-backed militia, have begun attacking international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Other Iranian-backed militias also opened fire on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria. While the U.S. military retaliates against Iranian proxies with attacks on U.S. military bases, Israel continues a series of attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, while also continuing to target Hezbollah’s Iranian supply lines in Syria.
On April 1, Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus and raised its terms. The dead included two senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and several other officers. While the airstrike was undoubtedly aimed at putting pressure on Iran to stop Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel, this public humiliation (which included the destruction of diplomatic facilities, which are technically Iranian sovereign territory) ) cornered the mullahs. From the Iranian government’s perspective, retaliation became necessary to save face both to its own people and to its regional allies.
For the past two weeks, Tehran has been talking about how to coordinate a response that shows strength against the “Zionist entity” but avoids dragging Iran into a broader war with Israel and its allies. A public discussion was held. Israel had ample warning, and so did the United States. President Biden returned to the White House from his home in Delaware on Saturday afternoon, ready to respond to the attack he had warned Iran not to mount.
On Saturday night, the Iranian attack finally took shape. Iran has launched more than 300 drones and missiles against Israel. This was the first time the Islamic Republic directly attacked the Jewish state. Typically, Iran prefers to operate through terrorist proxies. But while Iran’s attack was massive and unprecedented, it had little chance of success in the face of Israel’s multi-layered air defense network, backed by support from the United States, Jordan, Britain, France and other friendly countries. . Israel announced that 99% of Iranian projectiles were intercepted and damage was minimal.
The mullahs must have known that this was likely to happen. The attack was reminiscent of Iran’s missile attacks on two U.S. military bases in Iraq after the U.S. killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani of the Revolutionary Guards in early 2020. The attack caused no casualties and did not provoke U.S. retaliation. Both attacks were performative acts aimed at making a statement rather than inflicting mass casualties.
On Saturday, Iran directed Hezbollah to launch an arsenal of around 150,000 missiles in a possible attempt to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses. Given Hezbollah’s geographic proximity to Israel, the flight time would have been short and Israel would have had little time to prepare. But the mullahs were not like that. They chose to attack primarily from mainland Iran, giving Israel and its allies ample time to mount their own defenses.
Iranians do not aspire to a major war with Israel any more than Israel aspires to a major war with Iran. Both sides want to wage a low-intensity conflict, as they have done for years. Iran is sponsoring terrorist attacks against Israel by the “Axis of Resistance,” while Israel has launched covert actions against Iran’s nuclear program and airstrikes against Iranian operatives in Syria. And Lebanon. But no matter how much both countries want to avoid large-scale conflict, there is still a possibility that they will collide if the cycle of action and reaction gets out of control.
Currently, it is up to Israel’s war cabinet to decide whether to strike back against Iran. Had Iran’s attack resulted in many casualties, the pressure to respond would have been even stronger. That did not happen, and the pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to act rashly eased.
Indeed, in many ways, the attack was a defeat for Iran. This gave the appearance that Israel’s military was strong enough to protect the country from Iran and reduced Israel’s international isolation after more than six months of brutal war in Gaza. Countries that have called on Israel to implement a ceasefire and alleviate civilian suffering also rallied to Israel’s side on Saturday. House Republicans now say they plan to fast-track a floor vote on long-delayed military aid to Israel. (It would be a travesty if the aid bill did not include Ukraine, given that Ukraine is also subject to regular air attacks, many by Russian and Iranian drones.)
If Prime Minister Netanyahu were so inclined, he could claim the exchange as a victory for Israel and his beleaguered government. Or it could use this attack as the perfect excuse to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military facilities.
Iran has indicated its intention to ease tensions. Even before Iranian drones and missiles reached Israel on Saturday night, Iran’s mission to the United Nations had failed. written on X “This matter can be considered closed.” Mr. Biden reportedly told Prime Minister Netanyahu in a phone call on Saturday that the United States would not support Israel’s counterattack against Iran. But Israel’s defense minister said Sunday that the conflict was “not over yet.”
The decision now rests with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel’s war cabinet. Israel would be perfectly justified, both morally and legally, in ordering an airstrike on Iran. But that’s not strategically wise. Iran has a population of 88.5 million people, while Israel has only 9.5 million people. Iran has more than 500,000 active military personnel, an advanced defense industry, and a vast network of powerful agents across the region. Israel can damage Iran, but it cannot defeat Iran, or even destroy its well-hidden and hardened nuclear program. It does not even have heavy bombers like the B-52, which can carry the largest amount of bunker-destroying weapons.
Even the United States will have a hard time defeating Iran, and the Biden administration is understandably unwilling to get drawn into a war with the Islamic Republic that would likely lead to soaring oil prices and a global economic downturn. Biden has called on Prime Minister Netanyahu to exercise restraint. But after repeatedly ignoring Biden’s pleas in the past, will he listen now?
Israel was fortunate to escape serious damage from the recent Iranian attack. You might not be so lucky next time. The prudent move now would be to avoid escalation that could engulf the entire region in dire conflict. Israel would be better off focusing on ending the war in Gaza rather than escalating it. Rather than blindly retaliating, Israel could do more to thwart Iran’s regional plans by approaching Arab states, which are also Iran’s enemies. But emotions are running high on both sides, increasing the risk of miscalculation.
