Over the past week, we have seen what appears to be a well-considered decision by Israel to cleverly reshape its strategy to deter Iran and its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel’s deterrence is typically a large-scale use of offensive military force, a round punch that attempts to force obedience through coercion.
But this time it was different. Israel used its Iron Dome defense system and allied support when Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones over the weekend in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 attack on Iranian military leaders in Damascus, Syria. He took advantage of this to absorb the blow. It was an amazing display of missile defense that it was reported to have destroyed 99 percent of the weapons coming in from Iran. Some Israelis wanted to immediately respond with a massive counterattack. But under pressure from President Biden, they waited.
Israel’s response was silent when issued early Friday morning. Iranian and Israeli reports suggest that the Israeli Air Force has attacked a facility near Iran’s largest nuclear facility. The International Atomic Energy Agency said there was no damage to these facilities. But Israel sent a message that it could penetrate Iran’s air defenses and strike strategic targets if necessary.
Israel sought the last word in this exchange, and it appears to have succeeded. “Iran does not want an escalation,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday after meeting with officials in Tehran. Iran’s official statements have mocked limited action, but Israel has shown it can strike when it wants – in this case a jab, but maybe not next time. In this sense, Israel maintained what strategists call an “escalation advantage.”gave the first blow and The last one.
How do you explain Israel’s actions over the past week? What is the reason for its restraint when hawks within the Israeli government are crying out for an all-out attack?
This is my view: Israel is acting like the leader of a regional coalition against Iran. Its cautious response appeared to take into account the interests of allies in the coalition, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, which provided quiet support in last weekend’s shootdown. In other words, it’s playing the long game.
This would represent a paradigm shift for Israel. Rather than seeing itself as a beleaguered Jewish state fighting alone for survival against a group of Arab and Islamic enemies, Israel knows that it has allies. There is. As always, at the top of the list is the United States. But the United States is joined by Arab states that, like Israel, oppose Iran and its proxies.
That is the new shape of the Middle East. But for now at least, this maturing friendship between Israel and its former adversaries in the region must remain untold.
Israel has acquired another valuable asset in the past week. After absorbing Iranian missile attacks so skillfully, Iran is seen as both a victim of the attack and a master of high-tech defense. This is a welcome reversal after six months of intense fighting with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which has severely damaged Israel’s international reputation. After a series of Iranian missile launches and Jerusalem’s limited response, Israel now appears to have the support of the Group of Seven industrialized nations.
Israeli hardliners will say that a weak Biden administration is putting pressure on Israel. In the brutal fighting of the Middle East, critics will argue, it’s kill or be killed. This concept of stubborn Israeli deterrence may seem convincing. But after nearly 45 years of observing Israel’s dogmatic approach to security, I can tell you that the results have been mixed at best.
We’re looking at something new after “The April Gun.” Perhaps the worst is if Iran decides to move “sneaky” towards acquiring a nuclear weapon, or Hezbollah attacks from the north, or Israel chooses a devastating preventive war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. It may not have arrived yet. But for better or worse, this is a new chapter in the story.
It is now essential to bring the war in Gaza to a swift end. We are at a tipping point, and it is in the overwhelming interest of Israel, the Palestinians, and the entire Middle East to end this conflict. As veteran diplomat Dennis Ross recently observed, Israel has effectively demilitarized Hamas, with 19 of its 24 battalions eliminated. Israel’s de facto military alliance with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries is an open secret. We are finally moving towards the “day after tomorrow.”
Biden needs to help Israel end the Gaza war and ultimately find a path to a Palestinian state with Arab support. Of course, the White House has not commented on all this. But as Mark Rothko said when explaining why he stopped giving titles to his paintings, “Silence is very accurate.”
