Editor’s note: CNN political analyst Julian Zelizer is a professor of history and public policy at Princeton University and author of the upcoming book “The American Politics of Democracy.”A Nation in Crisis: Election Integrity as a National Security Issue” Follow us on Twitter Julian ZelizerThe views expressed in this commentary are his own. Further comments On CNN.
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President Joe Biden continues to face calls from Democrats to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race as Republicans prepare for their national convention next week.
The biggest unresolved question is who former President Donald Trump will choose as his running mate. During his campaign, Trump tried to generate as much excitement as possible by hinting at various possibilities, and did so in typical Trump fashion, including a comparison to the reality TV show he once hosted, “The Apprentice.”
It would be foolhardy to predict who Trump will pick: If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Trump loves the unpredictable, and there’s always the chance he’ll choose someone no one would have thought of as his running mate.
Initially, there were rumors that Trump would look outside the traditional Republican base. He may be looking at South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, a black man considered one of the most promising voices in the Republican Party, with an eye on expanding the Republican coalition. Polls show that Trump remains unpopular among Hispanic and black voters, but his approval rating is higher than when he left office. So Trump may use Scott as a way to strengthen his position among traditionally Democratic voters.
But in recent weeks, the conversation has shifted to three other candidates. For now, the front-runners also seem to include North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who could be the silent white, male conservative counterpart to former Vice President Mike Pence in this election. Burgum has the ability to appeal to a broad base of Trump-era Republicans and make up for the former president’s volatility and unpredictability.
Then there is Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, a telegenic white male populist who makes it his business to speak to and appeal to working-class voters, whose social and cultural concerns are often stronger than the economic considerations that lead them to sympathize with the Democratic Party. Trump already has these voters at the core of his coalition, so Vance will likely simply shore up his own position rather than broaden it.
There is also Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who could theoretically help Trump win the Hispanic vote, which could work in Trump’s favor in key states such as Pennsylvania. Rubio has deep ties to the Republican mainstream, especially as an internationalist who could counter some of Trump’s “America First” policies. Of all the possibilities, Rubio poses the most complex problem, because the 12th Amendment to the Constitution prohibits state electors from voting for president and vice president who live in the same state. Trump moved to Mar-a-Lago in 2020 and declared himself a Florida resident, so Rubio would have to move if he wants to secure all 30 of Florida’s precious electoral votes.
Trump may also decide to go against common sense and not balance the candidates, broaden their base, or heighten the drama. After all, Biden’s weak performance in the June 27 debate put Trump in an even stronger position than before. As a result, Trump may have to rely on one key criterion: whether the person will keep the spotlight on Trump without drawing too much attention to himself. It is unlikely that Trump will want someone who tries to challenge his position as the party’s leader.
As much as Trump understands and fuels the deep polarization of American politics, he also understands another fundamental truth: vice presidential nominees don’t tend to sway the outcome of elections. While commentators (including me) love to compare and contrast the various candidates, it’s hard to think of a vice presidential nominee who has dramatically changed the outcome of an election. Even when Dan Quayle, President George H.W. Bush’s No. 2, mispelled “potato” in a sixth-grade spelling bee in 1992, it made a big difference. The only recent exception might be Sarah Palin, Senator John McCain’s 2008 running mate, but the recession and then-President George W. Bush’s low approval ratings played a bigger role in the Republican candidate’s defeat.
After all, what Trump wants is someone who is completely loyal, who will go on TV and say whatever needs to be said, and who won’t take the public’s attention away from him. Given his track record, his love of the political fight, and his ability to launch devastating attacks on political opponents on his own, Trump certainly doesn’t feel the need to rely on anyone else to sell his populist, dystopian vision of America. He’s not interested in a tag-team match.
While it’s impossible to read Trump’s mind, the calculations suggest he may be leaning toward Burgum or another candidate like Trump.
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Trump’s 2016 decision is also enlightening. When he was considering picking Newt Gingrich as his vice president in 2016, the former House speaker and Georgia congressman appeared on Fox News shortly after meeting with the campaign and admitted to host Sean Hannity why Gingrich was not a good candidate: “Donald Trump is like a pirate in a lot of ways. He’s outside the normal system, he gets things done, he’s bold, he’s like a character in a movie, actually. In a lot of ways, my whole career has been a bit like a pirate.” The question, Gingrich said, was whether Trump really wanted a “pirate duo.” The answer was no. Trump chose the low-voltage Pence.
Trump likely thinks the same way this time around, and regardless of who he picks as his running mate, one thing is certain: As the Republican Party prepares to caucuses next week, it will continue to be all about Trump.
