The next six months are crucial for Ukraine, and it is unclear what the outcome will be. Yet the U.S. mainstream media has been negative about Ukraine’s prospects. This is largely due to what I call “wormhole reporting” – news coverage that is subjective, incomplete, selective, and often influenced by the Kremlin’s narrative.
for example, The New York Times’ The headline on May 18 was “Russian Troops Cross Ukrainian Border Into Kharkiv Region,” describing this as a “shocking incursion” that boded badly for Kiev.
JOIN TELEGRAM!
Follow our war coverage at @Kyivpost_official.
Another somber headline followed: “Ukraine on the defensive as Russia launches relentless offensive.” This prompted military historian Phillips O’Brien to weigh in, writing on May 19 that “much of the Russian success described is speculative.” The fact is, he wrote, that Russian ground forces have had modest success in Kharkov and are staggering on the main front in Donbas. “What we have seen is [of Russian forces] “Military operations in both theaters would be classified as failures,” O’Brien concluded. “Losses are mounting, and there are signs that Ukraine is, in fact, finally getting its hands on the ammunition.”
The fact is that Russia did not “break through” in Kharkov, Donbass or anywhere else. And it is also true that the Ukrainian army is great. After all, “David” prevented “Goliath” from fully occupying the country for two years, seriously damaging Putin’s army and reputation. Kiev’s mobilization is working (700,000 people have just registered for possible conscription under new standards) and Kiev’s strategy of bringing the war to Russia is succeeding.
Other topics of interest
French PM denounces far-right’s ‘moral contract’ with Moscow in televised debate
The televised debate between Attal and Bardera covered a wide range of topics, from the economy to trade, agriculture, immigration and the war in Ukraine.
Attacks inside Russia have forced Moscow to divert troops and firepower from the front lines to protect pipelines, railways, refineries and ports. Experts say the Ukrainian bombing campaign has reduced Russia’s refining capacity by 7 percent, or 370,500 barrels per day, and that attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet have been successful, meaning Ukrainian grain is once again on world markets at pre-war levels.
The Black Sea victory was especially notable given that Ukraine had almost no navy at the start of the war. But Ukrainian technological superiority gave rise to an unmanned maritime drone fleet that drove most of the Russian ships out of Crimea or sunk them to the bottom. Russian drones, special operations, and intelligence operations have reduced the Russian fleet in Crimea by one-third.
Ukraine’s unique drone army, remotely commanded by thousands of pilots, has also overcome the shortage of artillery, fighter jets and manpower. Drones have disabled tanks and battalions, causing a sharp rise in Russian casualties. As more ammunition reaches the Ukrainian frontline, the casualties are rising. In 2022, Russia lost 400 soldiers per day; in 2023, 658 soldiers per day; and so far in 2024, 899 soldiers per day. Such carnage also reduces the quality of Russia’s remaining military, as soldiers killed in action are replaced by younger, less trained recruits.
But the next six months are crucial. With European and US elections and Putin stepping up the pressure, Ukraine needs continued support. The outcome of the US election will be particularly important, but Europe will need to step up more than ever, whether Trump wins or not. The New York TimesUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also challenged Western hesitation and called on NATO to shoot down Russian missiles flying over Ukraine, arguing that this was a defensive tactic rather than a direct attack on Russia.
“So my question is, what’s the problem? Why can’t you shoot it down? Is it defensive? Yes. Is it an attack on Russia? No. Are you shooting down a Russian plane, killing a Russian pilot? No. So what’s the problem with dragging NATO countries into a war? There’s no such problem.”
Zelenskyy correctly contrasted NATO’s reluctance to defend Ukraine’s skies with the U.S. and Britain’s efforts last month to assist Israel in shooting down Iranian drones and missiles. “Just like we saw with Israel,” Zelenskyy said. “It doesn’t have to be on such a large scale… shoot down what’s in Ukraine’s skies, and give us weapons to take on the Russian forces on the border.” He also said it was unreasonable that European countries with hundreds of Patriot air defense systems had rejected Ukraine’s request for just seven Patriots.
Fortunately, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent pledge to provide $50 billion to Ukraine is a godsend. “We’re not going to back down,” she said, as she forges ahead with a loan plan for the G7 secured by frozen Russian assets. Moscow has threatened retaliation, but Yellen has brushed it off: “I think all of our partners are quite interested in a loan structure that would hasten the flow of windfall benefits.”
Ukrainians remain resilient and there is no reason to raise the white flag or for media “pessimists” to spread it instead of experts. A good example is NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, who revealed the truth about Kharkiv last week, saying: “Russian forces do not have the numbers necessary to make a strategic breakthrough in Kharkiv. More specifically, Russian forces do not have the skills and capabilities to do so and do not have the capacity to operate on the scale necessary to strategically exploit a breakthrough.”
Russia’s military is mediocre, and Putin’s most effective weapons of war have been Donald Trump, Viktor Orbán, and Western leaders of wealthy countries who have either been cowardly or compromised and have withheld aid from Ukraine. “If the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin, Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West, and will likely lose,” writes the respected military journal ISW (Institute for the Study of War).
“Our existing and potential capabilities far exceed those of Russia. The combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO countries, non-NATO European Union countries, and our Asian allies exceeds $63 trillion. Russia’s GDP is approaching $1.9 trillion. Iran and North Korea contribute very little in terms of material support. China supports Russia, but is not mobilizing for Russia, and is unlikely to do so. If we push hard and gain momentum, Russia will lose.”
Zelenskiy added that Western hesitation was due to fears of escalating nuclear war but was “exaggerated.” Putin would not use nuclear weapons, he said. “He may be irrational, but he loves his life.” He also noted that some countries were holding back because they were clinging to trade and diplomatic ties with Russia. “Everyone is leaving the door a little open,” he said.
The next six months will be crucial for the world, exiled Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky posted: “We need to use all the power of immobilized Russia. [financial] “If we don’t supply assets to Ukraine now, we will lose the war. It’s that simple and clear. If Putin is successful in Ukraine, NATO’s borders will no longer be an obstacle.”
The views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Kyiv Post.
Source [email protected] -Diane Francis on America and the World
See the original here.
