The reasons for this uncertainty are many, but they all go back to one main source. It’s a sense that America’s own bipartisan foreign policy consensus is fraying since World War II. This challenge has been exposed and accelerated by the rise of Donald Trump and the selfish and naive “America First” ideology within the Republican Party. At the same time, progressives in the Democratic Party are increasingly questioning the U.S. relationship with Israel and longstanding commitments to other Middle East partners such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
For now, America’s allies are holding their breath thanks largely to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and his willingness to belatedly risk his position to stand up to far-right elements within his party. is becoming easier. With his support and skillful management of the legislative process, the House majority has the opportunity to implement its will to support $95 billion in aid to countries in the Indo-Pacific region, including Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. (Importantly, the package includes not only $17 billion to help Israel defeat Hamas and thwart Iran and its proxies, but also $9 billion in humanitarian aid, much of it ) President Biden could sign the bill soon.
Measures against Ukraine are the most important of the three because Ukraine faces the most immediate threat. It lacks ammunition and is under relentless military pressure from Russia, which could lead to heavy losses and defeat. The $60.8 billion worth of aid will provide Ukraine with much-needed artillery and air defense assets, without which it may not be able to withstand President Vladimir Putin’s plans to conquer its neighbor, and then Similar invasions of other countries are likely to continue.
Europe’s security, a core interest of the United States, is at risk. It is unscrupulous that 112 of the 214 Republicans who voted were “against” aid to Ukraine (all 210 Democrats who voted were “in favor”), but House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (New York) was right to recognize the views of “traditional conservatives.” People, led by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, rose to the occasion. ” Jeffries also weighed in, allowing Democrats to vote on procedural rules that would move the measure forward. He hinted that Democrats would support Johnson if he faced a far-right insurgency over Ukraine. This sly hint of what will be a surprising bipartisan bailout from the Republican chair puts an end to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) threat to unseat Mr. Johnson. It seems to have helped calm down the situation.
This is a historic moment. The de facto bipartisan coalition government has maintained the United States’ global trust. But it feels more like a turning point than a conclusion. The world and America are changing. In fact, the situation is changing so quickly that part of what happened over the weekend was the vote to force China to either sell TikTok or ban it completely. This mobile phone app, used by 150 million Americans, typically young people, for information and entertainment, barely existed a decade ago. American politicians of both parties now see this as a means by which the People’s Republic could potentially exert malign influence over American public opinion.
Further conflict between and within the two parties over foreign policy priorities seems inevitable. Despite Trump’s setbacks, he still controls the Republican Party. Progressive Democrats are not yet finished arguing against unconditional aid to Israel. Thirty-seven of them voted against aiding Israel this time around, in unusual agreement with 21 right-wing Republicans, albeit for different reasons.
America’s alliances will remain, but they are ready to readjust their terms. This is not necessarily a bad thing if it results in these commitments being placed on a more politically and financially sustainable footing. America’s allies in Europe and Asia can certainly contribute more to their own defense. Israel could more effectively take into account concerns about the war in Gaza’s human cost.
But the House’s just-taken vote raises the possibility of tough talks between allies on the back of U.S. commitments, at least in this critical U.S. election year. The outlook beyond that is even more uncertain. No matter what happens, no American leader can succeed without the qualities Mr. Johnson just demonstrated: political courage.
