While House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) has spent months confronting the pro-Putin wing of his party, the battlefield situation in Ukraine has taken an ominous turn for the worse. Russian forces have continued to advance since a failed Ukrainian counterattack last year. In February, the invaders captured the strategic city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, securing their biggest victory since the fall of Bakhmut in May 2023. Since the beginning of the year, Russian forces have captured a total of 139 square miles. in Detroit, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington.
Concerns are growing that a Russian offensive reportedly planned for June could break through Ukraine’s exhausted front lines. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told PBS NewsHour this week that Ukrainian forces were outgunned 10 to 1 and it was impossible to “maintain our position.” CIA Director William J. Burns warned Thursday that Ukraine could “lose” the war by the end of the year without U.S. aid. The alarm raised by the US intelligence community, coupled with Iran’s attack on Israel, finally prompted Prime Minister Johnson to take action on the long-stalled foreign aid bill.
Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian garrisons not only with artillery fire, but also with huge “gliding bombs” that can shatter fortifications. Meanwhile, Ukraine faces a severe shortage of air defense ammunition, forcing senior leaders to choose between protecting front-line troops and urban centers.
Recent Russian airstrikes have severely damaged Ukraine’s power infrastructure, and this week a Russian missile attack on the city of Chernihiv killed at least 18 people. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city just 32 miles from Russia, has been dubbed the “second Aleppo” by its mayor, referring to the Syrian city destroyed by Russian bombing between 2012 and 2016. The damage has been so severe that there are warnings that the country is in danger of becoming a disaster.
While Ukraine is weakening, Russia is growing stronger. In scathing testimony before the House Armed Services Committee on April 10, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, said that despite losing more than 2,000 tanks and 315,000 soldiers, , said that the Russian military is “reforming much faster than we originally suggested.” He noted that Russian forces are “actually 15 percent larger now than they were during the invasion of Ukraine.”
Even more concerning than the expansion of the Russian military’s size is the increasing capabilities of the Russian military. One should not imagine that today’s Russian military is the same as the one that was unable to keep its tanks and trucks refueled during the first invasion. “Over the past year, the Russian military has demonstrated an accelerated ability to learn and adapt to battlefield challenges, both tactically and technologically,” Kavoli said.
Ukraine has scored important victories in recent months, including opening the Black Sea to Ukrainian grain exports and using long-range drones to destroy one-seventh of Russia’s oil refining capacity. But Russia has achieved at least a comparable level of unmanned aerial vehicle capabilities, while bringing superior resources in electronic warfare, artillery, and air power.
The U.S. military must begin providing emergency aid to Ukraine as soon as the Senate approves the House bill and President Biden signs it, with artillery and air defense ammunition being the most urgent priority. This should allow the Ukrainian military to stop the erosion of its front lines and boost its declining morale. But more needs to be done to contain Russia’s growing threat.
Ukraine lacks not only ammunition but also soldiers. Roughly 200,000 front-line troops are facing an estimated 470,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Many of Ukraine’s troops have been fighting since the invasion began and are tired and demoralized. Their numbers have been steadily dwindling due to Russian firepower and “meat grinder” attacks, leaving many units severely undermanned. (President Zelenskiy said in February that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the war began, but the actual toll is probably much higher.)
But fewer Ukrainians are willing to enlist than in the heady early days of the war. This is not surprising, given that potential recruits know that without adequate ammunition, leadership, and training, they can be sent to the front indefinitely. Ukraine desperately needs more soldiers to hold the front lines and allow those already on the front lines to return to the rear.
Earlier this month, President Zelenskiy signed a much-needed law overhauling the unwieldy military conscription system and lowering the draft age from 27 to 25, while mobilizing and training hundreds of thousands of new soldiers. It will take many months. The process could be streamlined if Western militaries sent their own trainers, or at least contractors, to Ukraine rather than forcing Ukrainian recruits to travel to other countries for training.
The House bill calls on the administration to send long-range ATACMS missiles that could cause significant damage to Crimean bases supporting Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Mr. Biden should have sent these weapons systems long ago, and there is an urgent need to do so now, along with the long-range Taurus cruise missiles that Germany has so far refused to send. The United States and its allies must allow Ukrainian forces to eventually destroy the Kerch Strait bridge that connects Crimea and Russia. It is a key cog in Russia’s war effort and President Putin’s show project.
The United States and its allies also need to dig deep and take short-term risks, if necessary, on their own defense requirements to send in more Patriot squadrons, which Ukrainians desperately need to protect against Russian airstrikes. There is. This is the least the United States can do if it does not use its aircraft to protect Ukraine, as it did against Israel. Air defense not only saves lives, but also provides the additional benefit of allowing Ukraine to expand its own defense production, thereby reducing long-term dependence on foreign aid.
The good news is that despite the embarrassingly long delays in providing U.S. aid and the resulting loss of Ukrainian lives, all is not lost. Ukraine still controls about 80 percent of its territory, and Ukrainians remain united in their resistance. Ukraine’s economy is expected to continue growing this year, but Russia faces wartime tensions that could be exacerbated by tougher sanctions on its oil and gas sector.
The newly approved U.S. aid package should come at the right time, not sooner, to avert Ukraine’s collapse this year. It would provide both supplies and a morale boost, and show Ukrainians that they are not abandoned. But both Ukraine and its Western supporters will need to do more to wrest battlefield advantage from Russia and convince the dictator that his brutal war of conquest cannot be won. In fact, more US aid will be needed in the future. I hope that Congress will act next time without pushing Ukraine to the brink of disaster.
