The victorious mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), was easily re-elected despite Mr. Erdoğan’s extensive campaigning for his opponent. Imamoglu, Erdoğan’s longtime rival, summed up the significance of the opposition’s victory, saying the vote “signifies an end to the erosion of democracy in Turkey and a return to democracy.”
I wish it were that easy. Immediately chastened by the outcome, Erdogan admitted that his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) had “lost momentum”. He promised a period of “self-criticism.” We believe in his honesty and that his critical self-examination led to the opening of Turkey’s democratic space, the restoration of once independent institutions and civil society, the end of media censorship, and the I hope this will lead to the release of political prisoners and journalists.
Despite being ostensibly a democracy, Turkey under Mr. Erdogan’s rule for the past two decades has been known for democratic backsliding and the concentration of power in the hands of an imperial president. Freedom House currently lists Turkey as an “not free” country due to its abysmal political rights and civil liberties scores. According to Reporters Without Borders’ latest Press Freedom Index, Turkey ranks 165th out of 180 countries, ranking it below even Russia and Cambodia as countries with profligate imprisonment of journalists.
Despite the attacks on democratic norms, the country’s important strategic location has enabled Mr. Erdoğan to maintain legitimacy with Western powers, including the United States. Turkey is a long-standing member of NATO, has the second largest military in the alliance, and also participates in NATO-led military operations. But Mr. Erdogan often proves to be a troublesome ally. Even after the Kremlin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, Turkey refused to join the sanctions against Russia and maintains trade relations with Moscow. And Mr. Erdogan maintains close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Turkish voters turned against Mr. Erdogan’s ruling party and supported the opposition, but they were likely as shaken by the country’s dire economic situation as by geopolitical concerns and the president’s growing authoritarianism. While Mr. Erdoğan has concentrated power in the presidency, he has proven incompetent as an economic manager. Inflation is currently running at around 70%, unemployment is high and the value of the Turkish lira has soared more than 80% in the past five years.
There have been recent signs that Mr. Erdogan is abandoning the unconventional economic views that led to the country’s early crisis, including resisting interest rate hikes that he believed would lead to higher prices. The central bank belatedly began raising interest rates last year under a new, more capable team. But much of the damage from Mr. Erdogan’s mismanagement will be harder to repair.
Mr. Erdogan, 70, has dominated Turkish politics since 2003 and won re-election last year, defeating a lackluster opposition candidate in a close contest that required a runoff election for the first time in Turkish history. Mr. Erdogan was recently quoted as saying Sunday’s local elections would be the last elections in which he would be involved. But few expect him to relinquish power so easily. Many believe Mr. Erdogan is trying to force constitutional changes to allow him to win re-election in 2028.
If Mr. Erdogan attempts to run again, he may face a formidable opponent in the charismatic 53-year-old Mr. Imamoglu. Mr. Erdogan has already shown that he fears Mr. İmamoğlu, perhaps because running Istanbul city was his own political springboard to the presidency. In 2019, when Imamoglu won the Istanbul mayoral election in an upset for the first time, the ruling party tried to disqualify him. In the end, a new election was held, and Imamoğlu again won easily. İmamoğlu is still fighting a bogus 2022 lawsuit that blocked his candidacy for last year’s presidential election and is still at risk of being stripped of the presidency.
Whether Sunday’s election truly marks the end of Turkey’s democratic backsliding remains an open question. The answer depends on whether Mr. Erdoğan heeds the clear message of voters.
