This feels like a big moment.
There is no doubt that this is a protest vote. Turkish voters expressed their dissatisfaction with the president and his policies less than a year after he won the general election. Opposition candidates won in all major cities.
In the capital Ankara, opposition mayor Mansour Yabas received twice as many votes as the AKP candidate.
More importantly, in the Battle of Istanbul, the city’s popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, decisively defeated Erdoğan’s hand-picked candidate. With more than 15 million inhabitants, Istanbul is more populous than many European countries and is a microcosm of Turkey. As a young Islamist, Mr. Erdoğan rose to prominence in national politics by winning municipal elections in 1994. He knows very well that “the one who controls Istanbul will control Turkey.”
Imammoğlu’s victory elevates the mayor to a de facto leadership role within the opposition party and makes him a leading candidate in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2028. As if in anticipation of this election campaign, the mayor gave a victory speech in front of a large crowd outside Istanbul City Hall. Midnight coincided with President Erdoğan’s concession speech in Ankara. Erdoğan spoke humbly about being “bold in self-criticism,” while the young Imamoglu roared on stage, proclaiming the victory of “republic and democracy” and the end of “the era of one-man leadership.” declared.
I interviewed Imamoglu for the Post shortly after he was elected in 2019 and have since gotten to know him personally. He is competent and has a personal touch that endears him to Istanbul residents. Given the economic downturn and rampant inflation, it is difficult to imagine Mr. Imamoglu waiting four full years to take on Mr. Erdogan. Opposition parties are likely to begin calling for early elections soon.
There are lessons here for other struggling democracies seeking to topple their own strongmen. That means charisma is important. Just a year before him, Turkey’s opposition failed to oust President Erdoğan in a general election, despite the Turkish economy’s slump. The main reason for this is that the opposition has settled on an insensitive compromise candidate, Kemal Kilikdaroglu. The balance of power has shifted against Mr. Erdoğan, with Mr. İmamoğlu a new and hopeful alternative.
Imammoğlu’s top adviser said the success of opposition candidates in Istanbul and Ankara was due to secularists being able to flip conservative and low-income constituencies where they had performed poorly in the past. For a long time, Turkey’s secular opposition offered only an ideology, a resistance to Erdogan’s Islamism, that appealed only to the urban middle class. Opposition leaders are now pledging good governance and, as a result, widening their base to include the urban poor, Kurds, and conservatives.
But it is too early to exonerate Erdogan. He is a survivor and a realist who can deftly switch alliances to maintain his power. Erdogan’s third and final presidential term ends in 2028, but few expect him to resign. His strategy will be to tide him over until 2028, in hopes of benefiting once Turkey’s economy recovers under his watch. He is also likely to push for a constitutional amendment that would allow him to serve another term.
To do so, Erdogan must do what he did in the last election and form a far-right coalition with Islamist parties to counter the wave of opposition. This is reminiscent of the strategy employed by his archrival, Israel’s longtime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And, as in Israel, such a strategy would only deepen social polarization and further accentuate Turkey’s fragile democracy.
Another path is open to President Erdoğan. He chose to step down after his third term and could justifiably claim to have been a transformative Turkish leader no less helpful than Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founding father of modern Turkey. Rather than trying to become an eternal president like Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping, he is determined to protect his legacy, the livelihood of the Turkish people, and secure Turkey’s place in a chaotic world until the end of his term. You should concentrate.
After this weekend, it is clear that Turkish voters have made their voices heard and are ready for change. Will President Erdogan listen to them?
