Debates aren’t for everyone. Many of us will watch them like I did watching the Boston Celtics’ epic playoff run, rooting for victory, cheering at great moments, and fretting over every mistake.
If partisanship matters, it’s likely to be Democrats who need continued support and reassurance that Biden can win. That, plus months of disparagement from Trump, 78, about the 81-year-old Biden’s abilities, has set a low bar for Biden to perform. Given his success in other key moments, such as the State of the Union, Biden is likely to meet or exceed that bar.
But there’s a catch for Biden: The “age issue” has been so persistently brought up against Biden that the media has tended to overlook or downplay many of Trump’s incoherence and even insanity. Biden and his aides must use this side-by-side performance as an opportunity to hold the two men to the same standard.
With at least 80 percent of Americans holding firm to their preferences, this debate matters most to the relatively few Americans who have the power to decide. Who are those people?
“The most important demographic of voters who will watch the debates are disengaged potential voters who haven’t yet decided whether it’s worth voting for,” Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson told me. “These voters generally don’t have a preference for either candidate, are very open to third parties, and will tune in to a debate that has a weird entertainment value, like a boxing match. For this type of voter, both persuasion and turnout are important goals.”
Republican pollster Whit Ayers points to a slightly larger group: “at least half of voters don’t want to vote for either candidate,” a group that is “more influenced by the candidates’ attitudes and influence than by positions on specific issues,” he said in an interview.
But issues like abortion, protecting democracy and health care for Biden and immigration, crime and cost of living for Trump are important to other voters at stake. Surveys by pollsters and academic analysts point to a set of subgroups that candidates must keep in mind: working-class voters who are not evangelical, especially women, black and Latino men, college-educated voters, especially independents and Trump-skeptic Republicans, and voters under 35, many of whom are anti-Trump but who Biden will need to persuade to vote for them. Ayers said the debate is likely to be an excursion to the suburbs because suburbanites are important to many of these groups.
“I think the demographic that’s really struggling with the cost of living but is increasingly fed up with Trump is primarily women, people who are more independent and less educated,” Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg told me. “They need a reason to vote for Biden, and abortion is one reason, but it’s also really because they feel Trump is dangerous.”
Biden’s main goal will be to get Trump to make some outrageous remarks that confirm these concerns. This may not be too difficult given Trump’s natural proclivities. He could do so by reminding him of the 34 crimes he was convicted of and how many of his former cabinet members are now slandering him.
Biden also needs to look to the future rather than back to the past. His key policies for a second term, such as higher drug price caps, day and senior care, the child tax credit and housing affordability, will appeal to many voters who are still undecided. Biden will hope to convince voters how his economic record compares with other national leaders and to argue that his investment plan has boosted working- and middle-class voters more than anything Trump has done.
But the president is expected to have enough restraint to resist the temptation to make the debate primarily about his own record: If it’s primarily about Trump, the president knows he can win the election.
This suggests that the conventional wisdom that this debate is more important for Biden is incorrect. A Fox News poll conducted June 14-17 shows why: Biden has a 2-point lead, but a 5-point lead among the three-quarters of voters who say it’s “very important” who wins (and they are likely to vote), and an 11-point lead among “double haters” who have an unfavorable view of both candidates.
Trump needs to energize more voters, restrain himself from appearing rational, hide his love of conspiracy theories, and keep the debate away from himself. I’m skeptical he can manage this.
