Editor’s note: Alan J. Borsak is a senior fellow in law and public policy at Marquette Law School in Milwaukee. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.See more opinion On CNN.
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What’s so important about 20,000 voters in an election of 3 million voters? Wisconsin’s answer is that seemingly small numbers can make or break a game. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by less than 23,000 votes, which was key to Trump’s overall victory. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump by just over 20,000 votes, which was key to Biden’s overall victory.
In 2000, Democrat Al Gore defeated Republican George W. Bush in Wisconsin, and in 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated Bush by a margin of far less than 20,000 votes. Add in the fact that they won, and consider the prediction that it is very likely that it will be another close race in Wisconsin. This year’s presidential election.
Provided by: Alan Borsk
Alan J. Borsk
So begins the presidential primary election in Wisconsin on Tuesday. The primaries had no real meaning in determining the candidates of the two major parties. But then again, why did Biden campaign on 6th Avenue, a street that heads into the heart of Milwaukee’s black community, on March 13?Why did Trump hold? A Tuesday night rally in Green Bay, two hours north of Milwaukee? And why is this number 20,000 getting so much attention these days?
The basic answer is because Wisconsin is a key battleground state. Not only election results, but also election strategies affect small groups of voters across states. Although many regions have strong political identities, Wisconsin is a purple state where key elections are often decided by close margins, with candidates seeking to win more votes than their primary opponents. You need to get enough groups working together. And “more” doesn’t necessarily mean more (a subgroup of 20,000 people might get a lot of attention, for example).
One of the reasons why 20,000 people are attracting attention is the Biden administration’s support for Israel during the Gaza war. Opponents of Israeli attacks are urging people to vote for a “no commitment” or “no direction” option in the Democratic presidential primary to send a message to Biden that Israel’s support cannot be counted on. This is being done in Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and other states. Unless there is a major change in U.S. policy regarding Israel, it will change in November, but opinions differ on what that change is.
This week it was Wisconsin’s turn. Organizers of the “No Instructions” campaign have publicly stated that they aim to get 20,000 people to vote that way on Tuesday. why? Because that’s Biden’s margin of victory in 2020, and they want Biden to feel that his victory is in jeopardy.
The “uncoached” supporters performed better than their stated goals. The unofficial and nearly complete count resulted in 47,846 “uncoached” votes, or 8.4% of the votes cast in the Democratic primary. Biden won the Minnesota Democratic Party with 506,969 votes, or 88.6% of the total. Congressman Dean Phillips received 17,553 votes, or 3.1% of the total.
Was the “no directive” vote enough to send a message to Biden about Middle East policy? The group’s leaders were quick to say yes, but the 8.4% rate was lower than in Minnesota, Michigan, and North Carolina, where each received more than 10% of the vote. But how that message will play out in November is unpredictable. First, the number of voters will likely be around 3 million, compared to just over 1 million on Tuesday. And the situation surrounding Israel and Gaza may change. However, consider that the messages sent may be received.
There are other important messages tested in Wisconsin on Tuesday. The question for Mr. Trump is how to muster enough support in Wisconsin to win a majority in November. The suburban ring around Milwaukee is said to be some of the most heavily Republican areas in the country, but support for President Trump has declined in recent years. In the end, Trump won 79% of the Republican primary vote, even though there was no active campaign against him. Was there a message that he didn’t get 80% of the vote? Among those hinting at that was CNN political reporter Gregory Krieg, who wrote, “Republicans once again warned Trump about party unity and their intention to vote for him again in November.” .
Former House Speaker Paul Ryan, the most widely known Republican from Wisconsin, was not a Trump supporter until Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher, who represents the area centered around Green Bay, suddenly announced he was leaving Congress. He was a rising figure within the Republican Party. , apparently tired of Washington.
There are also warning signs in Wisconsin about a factor that particularly threatens Biden’s prospects in Wisconsin: enthusiasm, or more accurately, lack of enthusiasm.
Earlier this year, I helped Marquette Law School poll a poll of Wisconsin voters about the presidential election. One of the poll questions was how enthusiastically people would vote for him in November. The results were dramatic: among those who said they were very enthusiastic about voting, 59% supported Mr. Trump and only 40% supported Mr. Biden. Among those who said they were not at all enthusiastic about voting, 57% said they supported Mr. Biden and 42% said they supported Mr. Trump. As Market Poll Director Charles Franklin notes, enthusiasm generally relates to the likelihood of actually voting.
So back to Biden, who was campaigning on Sixth Avenue in Milwaukee. A key factor in Trump’s surprise victory in Wisconsin in 2016 was relatively low turnout among black voters in Milwaukee, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic. Biden had slightly better black turnout in 2020 and won the state. But Biden is not very popular among blacks, either nationally or in Wisconsin. Motivating black voters is likely to be a continuing theme of the Democratic presidential campaign in Wisconsin.
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For Democrats in particular, a presidential campaign in Wisconsin can look like an episode of an Ed Sullivan variety show where the entertainer has to keep running around the table to keep the many plates spinning on the table. do not have. Feelings about Gaza and the “non-commitment” vote are particularly noteworthy right now. But many other plates will need to be turned, including progressives, union members, rural voters, and voters whose priorities include abortion, health care, climate, student debt, and other issues.
In Wisconsin, a spinning plate might speak to 20,000 voters here, 20,000 voters there, or 20,000 votes elsewhere on the table. How well Biden and his campaign team keep them well-rounded may determine who wins the presidential election in this key battleground state.
