As of this writing, Biden has not publicly signaled his intention to withdraw. But if the situation changes, many media figures, Democratic activists, and Democratic lawmakers may regret it. If Harris rises to the top, critics who have belittled her, discounted her expertise, and dismissed her statesmanship will be quick to praise her. (Recall that many Republicans who once condemned the insurrection of felon and former president Donald Trump ultimately transcended the line of hypocrisy by aligning themselves with him.)
Assuming the choice is Biden or Harris, voters, Democratic Party officials and progressive groups will need to evaluate the pros and cons of a switch. I interviewed Harris as a candidate and as vice president, watched her appearances up close and witnessed her involvement in the administration, especially her role in attacking the Supreme Court’s reckless decisions. Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health OrganizationThe person I saw bore little resemblance to the image her critics had created (after her first year as vice president, many journalists frankly stopped writing about her, stating simply that she was getting bad press).
Harris’s strengths can be broadly divided into three categories. First, if Biden struggles to attract younger voters and is in danger of alienating non-white voters, Harris could provide a catalyst for galvanizing his base. A recent CNN-SSRS poll suggests Harris could turn Biden’s three-point lead among women voters into a seven-point lead and gain support among independents. (Note: Non-candidates often perform well before the media starts to criticize them in earnest.)
Her sold-out speaking engagements on college campuses could also boost turnout among younger voters. She’s a powerful speaker who can enthuse audiences that include pro-abortion women, HBCU students, and Hispanic union workers. The prospect of the first black woman to become president could inject some much-needed energy into voter turnout in what’s likely to be more of a mobilization than a persuasion election (i.e., one in which most people have already made up their minds).
Second, the issues that should be at the heart of the Democratic campaign are right up her alley: abortion, the tyranny of the Supreme Court, the apparent unfitness of felon and former president Donald Trump. She has been the leading voice in the administration attacking these issues. Dobbs as an attack on liberty and privacy. Her legal background gives her the authority and skill to hold the Supreme Court to account for its insane excesses. And, as I have argued, she would be more effective than any Democrat in attacking Trump. (And, of course, running against a black woman would infuriate him.)
Democrats might be pleased to see a campaign featuring Harris denounce Trump’s racist comments, such as his use of the phrase “black jobs” in a debate with Biden or his tweets about nonexistent electric planes. Imagine her analyzing Project 2025 or highlighting Trump’s 34 felony convictions and civil trial for rape. And as a frequent overseas visitor, Harris could deftly portray allies’ horror at Trump’s invitation to Vladimir Putin to attack NATO countries and mock Trump’s delusion that dictators love him.
Third, Harris would deprive the Republicans of their most potent issue. Their campaign has been virtually entirely about Biden’s age. Of course, MAGA devotees have lied about Biden’s economic record, legislative successes, foreign policy achievements, etc., but the one issue they really rallied around, especially after the debates, was age. With Harris at the top of the candidates, the media would finally focus on Trump’s fading intellectual abilities and character flaws (as I have pointed out) with the appropriate urgency.
Still, Harris’ nomination carries real risks. Gender and racial biases could alienate voters in battleground states. Democrats’ previous criticisms of Harris would be hurled in her face. And, as presidential historian and prognosticator Alan Lichtman argues, Democrats would lose not just the advantage of incumbency but also Biden’s unique connection to union members. Harris would also face questions about whether she spoke candidly about Biden’s physical limitations (she is one of the most reliable witnesses to Biden’s job performance).
Some of those risks may be offset by the low expectations her critics have of her, but no one can guarantee that she will win more votes than she loses. Biden’s approval rating has dropped in post-debate polls, but that’s not enough to spark a tsunami of public calls for him to drop out of the race (at least for now).
So the only question that matters is this: Will Biden conclude that he cannot run a vigorous, winning campaign to protect our democracy from the greatest threat of our lifetimes? One interview is not enough. He must appear in a free atmosphere every day. If he cannot do that, he will prove incapable of campaigning.
The good news for Democrats is that if Biden decides to step down, the party has a solid chance to win and make history with Harris. Or, if Biden stays on and is re-elected, voters can be sure they have a capable vice president to take over if necessary.
