Editor’s note: CNN political analyst Julian Zelizer is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. He is the author and editor of his 25 books, including the New York Times bestseller Myth America: Historians Take on the Biggest Lies and Legends About Our Past (Basic Books). Follow him on Twitter @julianzelizer. The views expressed in this commentary are his own.view more opinions On CNN.
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The Democratic Party is increasingly concerned about divisions within the party over the Israel-Hamas war, and its victory in November is in doubt.
The outbreak of pro-Palestinian protests on university campuses and subsequent clashes with police portend bad times ahead. The demands of the student demonstrators vary slightly from school to school, but center around an end to the war and the divestment of university funding from companies linked to Israel or profiting from the war.
After Columbia University President Minoush Shafiq’s decision to allow New York City police to shut down a protest led to the arrest of more than 100 students and similar actions at other universities, They expanded their objectives to include pro bono advocacy work. Right to speech and protest. Meanwhile, many other students across the country feel their universities have not done too much to prevent anti-Semitic rhetoric, harassment and physical intimidation. this week, The University of Southern California announced it was canceling its graduation ceremony, citing safety concerns.
Many student protesters see the Biden administration as responsible for and complicit in the violence and humanitarian crisis facing Gaza residents. Meanwhile, it’s clear that Republicans sense a political opportunity. On Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson, representing Louisiana, traveled to New York City and told protesters in Columbia to “get back to class and stop this nonsense.” He also called on Shafik to resign “if he is unable to immediately bring order to this chaos” and threatened to call in the National Guard if the protests are not quelled. Whether or not this is a real concern for Mr. Johnson, it is clear that Republicans, at least politically, intend to portray the Democratic Party as a party with radical members who threaten the stability of our institutions. .
The chaos we are witnessing brings back memories of the massive student protests of 1968. The comparison is not lost on us, considering this year’s Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago. Democrats may be regretting their choice to hold their event in the Windy City, considering one of the loudest conventions in American history was held on the very same street. After President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not run for reelection, the party nominated Hubert Humphrey for vice president. However, Humphrey’s coronation moment quickly turned into a moment of confusion. In November, Chicago police under Mayor Richard Daley confronted anti-Vietnam War demonstrators with tear gas and batons on the street outside the convention, and footage of the violence shown on television severely damaged Humphrey’s future. Ta.
Former Vice President Richard Nixon, the Republican presidential candidate, took advantage of the divisions in the Democratic Party by running as a champion of “law and order” and a voice for the “silent majority” of Americans. One of his campaign ads showed an image of a protester and his voiceover said: We will bring order to America. ” In his speech accepting the Republican nomination, Nixon promised to represent “the forgotten Americans, the people who have no voice.” Non-demonstrators. They are not racist or sick. They are innocent of the crimes that plague this country… They elevate the American Dream. ”
Nixon carried this theme directly into his November victory. His numbers probably would have been even higher if he hadn’t faced third-party competition from Alabama Governor George Wallace, who had joined the anti-war hippie movement.
Many historians believe that the intensity of the anti-war movement, which targeted Johnson as the mastermind of the conflict (“Hey, LBJ, how many children did you kill today?”), resulted in support for Humphrey and Humphrey. I came to agree that it was weakening. This would open the door for Nixon to win the White House.
Biden and his campaign must be worried that history will repeat itself.
But there are a number of important differences between 2024 and 1968 that could make this current situation far less damaging to Biden than some Democrats fear. The current debate over war is no longer focused on the presence of American troops in the field, as was the case in Vietnam. And while tensions persist within the Democratic Party over how to approach issues such as criminal justice reform, the party as a whole is much more aware of these thorny issues than it was in the 1960s, when divisions within the party were deeper. are in step with each other. .
The anti-war protests of the 1960s continued for years. It remains unclear whether the protests, which are currently not on the same scale or scope as the anti-Vietnam protests, will continue to intensify or start to subside, especially as school holidays begin for the summer. And a recent poll of 18- to 29-year-olds conducted by Harvard Kennedy College in March found that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is less important than gun violence and other subsistence issues. It was found that it was ranked second. Inflation, healthcare, housing, etc.
While the 1968 convention was held in the era of network television, where political conventions had the potential to capture the attention of a broader and more diverse set of Americans, the media landscape of 2024 means that the convention would be fragmented, if at all. It means that it can be seen in audience. Meanwhile, social media has also led to the rapid circulation of highly damaging videos and images showing anti-Semitic rhetoric and acts of protest on campus.
And of course, anyone looking to win on the “law and order” theme in 2024 will have to do so in between multiple lawsuits.President Trump called for a crackdown on protests in 2020 after the killing of George Floyd, but his efforts may have had limited success. In this case, given his multiple criminal charges (he denies all wrongdoing) and the fact that his own presidency has come to embody anarchy and confusion for many voters. is.
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Despite the differences that now clearly distinguish these situations, Democrats are taking the potential political threat seriously and are moving ahead with this conflict before the critical months from August to early November begin. It would be desirable to maintain engagement with all of the constituencies on which they are focused.
At least Biden simply ignored the anger that was raging beneath him when a band played “Happy Days Are Here Again” to drown out anti-war protesters at the 1968 DNC convention. You can avoid Humphrey’s mistake of trying.
