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Chris Suellentrop: Is a decline in moviegoing an existential threat to Hollywood, in the same way that journalism is endangered by the internet and changing habits? Will it change the types of movies we watch? Why do I care?
Matt Belloni: Because, probably within the next five years, when you decide to go to your local multiplex to see a movie, go on a date, or spend time with your kids, there will no longer be a movie theater there. The movie theater business will likely shrink, especially in the U.S., where there are too many showings.
Movie theater construction in the ’80s and ’90s went completely haywire with the rise of cineplexes and the rise of traditional summer blockbusters and then year-round blockbusters, and the tent-pole business that studios run today knows that in order to compete with streaming, they have to create theatrical experiences that make people say, “I have to see that in the theater right now.”
And in most cases, that means intellectual property that’s already been branded, something you already know, sequels to movies you’ve already seen and loved, or a specific genre like horror or big-budget action movies. That’s what the industry currently calls “theatrical release.” Everything else will be streaming.
Alyssa Rosenberg: What is your optimistic outlook for the future of theater, and do you think it’s real or possible?
Belloni: I think movie theaters have a future, but it will inevitably be a smaller, more boutique, more niche, and probably more expensive experience. When movies started in the ’20s and ’30s, the idea was that movies were for everyone. It was mass art. If you had a quarter you could go see a movie. I don’t see that happening.
People don’t go to the cinema these days, they go to see movies. If the movie piques your interest, you’re like, “Okay, I want to see it at the cinema.” It’s not like, “It’s Friday night, I’m going to see a movie, what are you doing?” I don’t think it’s going to be like Broadway. I don’t think it’s going to be like opera. But it’s like a sporting event, people who are interested will go, people who aren’t interested won’t go, and they might not be interested.
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