A growing number of people, including Pope Francis, are calling for Ukraine to abandon its defenses and come to the negotiating table with Russia. They have urged Ukraine’s leadership to consider a deal, citing the battlefield stalemate and Russia’s superior resources. Little is said about what that specifically means. But that would clearly include freezing the conflict and ceding occupied territory in Ukraine to Russia in exchange for an end to the fighting.
My country, Moldova, is no stranger to such transactions. Ukraine’s small western neighbor, Moldova, experienced Russia’s first war of aggression after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but the war ended with a cease-fire in 1992. Thirty-two years later, 1,500 Russian troops are still stationed on internationally recognized territory of Moldova, despite being the capital of the Kremlin. It formally withdrew from the agreement in 1994 and again in 1999. This incident shows that Russia cannot be trusted at all.
But for Ukraine, there are bigger problems than Russian mistrust. That is, freezing the conflict simply does not work without a full peace agreement. For three decades, this policy has divided Moldova, hindered national development, and provided Russia with opportunities to interfere in Moldova’s life. We must remember that a frozen conflict is still a conflict. Those seeking reconciliation in Ukraine should heed Moldova’s warning.
The scene of the Russia-Moldova War was Transnistria, a region in eastern Moldova with a population of approximately 370,000 people. With Moscow’s support (but no formal recognition), the territory declared independence from Moldova in 1990, sparking violence that escalated into conflict. Russian-backed separatists clashed with government security forces, and forces from both sides engaged. Hundreds of people died. Russia cut off gas supplies to Moldova, forcing people in cities to freeze in their apartments and cook their meals outdoors over bonfires.
After four months of intense fighting, a ceasefire agreement was signed in the summer of 1992 by Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Moldova President Mircea Snegur. It established a safe zone patrolled by so-called peacekeepers, effectively locking Moldova out of Transnistria. For her 30 years, Transnistria maintained an independent government, set of laws, national flag, and currency, all under Russian protection. Moldova does not recognize Transnistria’s independence, nor do any other United Nations member states.
The self-proclaimed republic is not doing well. It became known for arms and drug smuggling and a poor human rights record. Opponents are persecuted and independent journalists are detained. Last summer, an opposition leader was found shot to death in his home. Much of the region’s economy is controlled by a single company called Sherif, founded by a former KGB agent.
Transnistria splits Moldova in half. On the left bank of the Dniester River in democratic Moldova, there is free press in Romanian, the country’s official language, along with Russian and other minority languages. In authoritarian Transnistria on the right bank, the media is controlled by the authorities and used to convey Russian propaganda.
Perhaps the toughest sector is education. Above schools in Transnistria, flags of Russia and Transnistria, not Moldova, are flown. There, the Romanian language, as well as the press, is written in Cyrillic rather than Latin, as it was in Soviet times. In history class, students learn that the Romanians on the right bank of the Dniester are fascists who are trying to kill them. Due to limited education and poor job opportunities, most young people leave the region after graduation.
Some of them go to Chisinau, the capital of Moldova. However, being in Russia’s sphere of influence is hindering Moldova’s economic development. Moldova followed the Soviet trade model and exported wine, fruits, and vegetables to Russia, while Moscow mainly traded gas and oil.
The Kremlin has always weaponized these commercial relationships. In 2006, Moscow imposed an embargo on Moldova’s agricultural products after Moldova refused to accept a federalization plan developed by Russia. The Kremlin imposed new import bans in the run-up to Moldova’s 2014 association agreement with the European Union (EU) and after Moldova becomes an EU candidate country in 2022.
Similarly, Moscow has exploited Moldova’s energy dependence. Moscow exerts considerable control over the country by signing contracts at the last minute, reducing gas supplies for the winter, and threatening to halt deliveries. While Europe is investing in good governance and infrastructure in Moldova, Russia is investing only in propaganda and influence actors, fueling corruption, division, and instability.
Russia has exploited fears of renewed conflict since the 1990s. Since the invasion of Ukraine, these efforts have become excessive. Rumors that Transnistria is demanding Russian annexation and false reports of attacks in the region are common. Kremlin officials have repeatedly threatened Moldova, claiming it is a second Ukraine, adding to the anxiety already felt by people living next door to a full-scale war.
This is a particularly bad year for Moldova to be under such pressure. Moldovans will vote in October in a referendum on electing the next president and joining the European Union. Accession negotiations are scheduled to begin this year, with Moldova aiming to move closer to Europe. However, Russia will not allow this lightly.
The Transnistrian War is a scar for Moldovans and is constantly featured in books and films. A good example is Carbon, which was released in 2022. The film, set during the 1992 war, centers on a veteran of the Soviet war in Afghanistan and his young neighbor who wishes to enroll in the Moldovan Volunteer Army. Along the way, they discover charred remains that may belong to either side of the conflict. They try, often comically, to discover its identity and give it a dignified burial.
Based on a true story and produced by a crew with personal ties to Transnistria, the film broke U.S. box office records. Screenwriter Mariana Starciuk summed it up. “Transnistria is the root of all our problems for the past 30 years,” she said.
Today, her words ring truer than ever. It is because of the frozen conflict that Moldova remains under Russian influence, exposed to constant threats and endless danger. But Moldovans fear escalation not because we are not at the negotiating table with the Russians, but because we are at the negotiating table and the results have been deeply damaging. Ukraine must not make the same mistake.
