Opinion matters more than analysis when assessing Bears’ improvement

ESPN analysis writer Seth Walder said that while the appearance may have changed, the overall improvement is hardly noticeable.

Sports Illustrated sees it differently.

Citing ESPN’s Football Power IndexWalder rates the Bears as the 19th-best team this year, well behind Green Bay (10th) and Detroit (4th) in the division.

By their calculations, the Bears have a 41.6% chance of making the playoffs, a 13.2% chance of winning the NFC North, a 2.3% chance of winning the NFC Championship and a 1.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

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Their season win probability projection is 8.6-8.4%. In other words, that’s about as close to a .500 win percentage the team can achieve over a 17-game schedule.

That’s better than their 7-10 record in 2023, but barely dented their last-place finish in the NFC North.

Sports Illustrated Rating was a panel discussion about the most improved teams in the league, and it’s easy to guess it was the Bears because not only did one panelist say it was the Bears, but there was also another panelist who named a different team because officials weren’t allowed to name the Bears twice.

In a discussion between Albert Breer, Connor All, Gilberto Manzano, and Matt Verderame, Breer names the Cardinals as the most improved team, Manzano names Washington, All names the Giants, and Verderame names the Bears as the most improved team. However, Breer said he liked the Bears’ performance, and All clearly stated that he had intended to name the Bears the most improved team but changed it because Verderame had already named them and it was a panel discussion after all. What kind of discussion would it be if everyone named the same team?

“If you think Caleb Williams is going to be a star now or in the near future, Chicago is your option,” Verderame wrote, before detailing other offensive changes including Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett.

“If Williams plays to his potential, Chicago could not only compete for a playoff spot, but could even advance further in the NFC,” Verderame concluded.

It’s all a matter of opinion, and ESPN can pin all the decimal points on a supposed analytical approach to how much the Bears have improved.

Perhaps the situation is best summed up by what those betting on it believe: SI’s Iain MacMillan wrote an article on which teams have the best odds of winning the NFC, based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Bears are in the playoff picture at +1400, seventh in the rankings, a level no one would have expected at this time a year ago. They’re one spot ahead of the Rams (+1600) but still behind the Packers and Lions in their division.

Game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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