“It was a worst-case scenario for Iran, but it turned out to be the best-case scenario,” Brett McGuirk, the National Security Council’s Middle East director, said in an interview. He is the top official who worked closely with President Biden during what officials said was a “nervous 12 minutes” during which no one knew whether the defenses could hold up while ballistic missiles were flying toward targets in Israel. He was one of the officials.
This weekend’s missile war marked the end of Israel’s bold but dangerous attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1. The airstrike killed seven officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two senior officers. Now, Israel’s surprising success in fending off Iranian retaliation for its attacks may mark a psychological turning point in the trauma of the Gaza war. Israel has felt weakened and beleaguered since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack, and has become increasingly isolated internationally as it attempts to crush Hamas in hiding places for desperate Palestinian civilians. But that iconic image was reversed Saturday night.
With its Iron Dome missile defense system, Israel has become a relentless defender of Islam’s holy sites in Jerusalem and its own people. Suddenly, Israel appeared to have the world on its side against Iran’s attack. Britain and France also joined the Americans in shooting down the Iranian salvo. Officials said Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other Arab countries also secretly joined the joint air defense effort. And seven Western nations discussed possible joint sanctions against Iran on Sunday morning.
White House officials, who had anxiously awaited an Iranian attack on Friday night, seemed almost jubilant as they explained the results Sunday afternoon. A senior administration official called it a “stunning defeat” of an “unprecedented” attack on Iran. Israel and its partners destroyed “99 percent” of the weapons fired in the attack, with “virtually no infrastructure damage to Israel,” the official said. In the Middle East, U.S. officials said social media posts mocking Iranian missile failures.
There will definitely be more rounds of military conflict between Israel and Iran. But after what a senior government official said was an “extraordinary feat of military valor” by Israel on Saturday night, a rapid climb up the escalating ladder seemed unlikely.
The White House feared that if Iran penetrated Israel’s defenses and inflicted significant damage, Israel could respond with punitive retaliation and push the region into full-scale war. “Had it been successful, the attack could have triggered an uncontrollable escalation,” the official said. But that shield turned out to be surprisingly strong, with an Iranian statement saying “the matter can be considered over” after the barrage failed.
Biden spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shortly after the “tense moment” when most of 100 Iranian ballistic missiles headed for Israeli targets were successfully intercepted. “We had a pretty good feel about our position,” the official said. Biden warned Netanyahu that “Israel was really far ahead in this interaction,” but that “we need to think carefully and strategically about the risk of escalation,” the official recalled. .
Biden advised Israeli leaders to “take things slowly and think things through.” That’s typical Biden, and it seems likely that he will emerge from the missile weekend in a stronger position at home and abroad. While he criticized Netanyahu’s “mistakes” on Gaza and called for de-escalation and humanitarian aid, Biden also promised “ironclad” support for Israel’s defense in crisis.
“Biden is the first American president to directly defend Israel,” the official said. Officials say a U.S. guided-missile destroyer shot down four to six Iranian missiles, a U.S. Patriot missile destroyed another in Iraq and two squadrons of U.S. fighter jets shot down a large number of Iranian missiles. They shot down an Iranian drone.
Military success will likely create room for other actions. Now that Iranian rocket attacks have been defeated, some Israelis may want to go even further. But perhaps the show of force will create an opportunity to defuse a conflict that until this weekend seemed damaging and demoralizing to Israel. After Saturday night’s fireworks, that momentum may have changed.
