Unfortunately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is right — “Unfortunately,” I say. Because, as many in Israel believe, he is the most incompetent, corrupt, and divisive Israeli prime minister in history. But he said it was vital for Israel to conquer Rafah and annihilate the Hamas battalion stationed in the city on the southern edge of the Gaza Strip, which is protected by a human shield of about 1.4 million residents and refugees from the north. ‘s point is correct.
If this does not happen, Hamas will survive to fight, kill, and rape another day. And its leader Yahya Sinwar will emerge from his hiding place and declare his victory. And he would be right. For peace between Palestine and Israel to have any chance, Hamas must be eradicated for the sake of regional stability and the future well-being of Israel and Israelis, especially those living in the south.
It is still up in the air whether Israel will actually attack Rafah or whether it is likely to carry out an attack that it would consider a successful conclusion. The Biden administration this week strongly warned against a full-scale invasion of Rafah, saying it could cause severe harm to civilians and ultimately undermine Israel’s security. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that a date for the invasion had been set, but he did not provide specifics.
Of course, there are terrible reasons for Israel to refrain from invading Rafah. First and foremost, it is that human shield. Despite Israel’s assurances that it would move civilians out of harm’s way before launching an attack, an attack on Rafah would inevitably cause large numbers of civilian casualties. The expected civilian death toll from the Rafah attack would exceed the estimated 33,000 killed by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Ministry of Health (this figure includes the number of civilians killed by Israeli forces in the past six months). (Including more than 12,000 Hamas fighters who claim to have done so.) Many were killed in ground attacks in Gaza City and Khan Yunis in the north.
Further civilian casualties and the subsequent disruption of humanitarian aid through the Egypt-Gaza border will further intensify condemnation of Israel’s actions by Western allies, led by the United States. The threat of international sanctions is already on the table.
Second, Egypt has been telling Israel to stay away from Rafah for months. Cairo is concerned that Israeli attacks could spread to the Sinai Peninsula, leading to an influx of Palestinians into Egypt. Given Hamas’ ties to Egypt’s powerful (now banned) Muslim Brotherhood movement, this could create both a new humanitarian crisis and a political challenge. Egypt has hinted that such an Israeli operation could even destroy the 45-year-old Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, which the Israeli government considers a cornerstone of national security.
Furthermore, the operation in Rafah, like the Israeli military’s previous war in Khan Yunis, is bound to be protracted. Given that there is a vast Hamas tunnel network under that road and that Israeli troops are taking extreme caution as they are likely stationed in Rafah, Hamas raided southern Israel on October 7th. Israeli hostage tunnel.
Here we can understand public opinion in Israel. The launch of Rafah’s offensive could itself delay an agreement with Hamas for the recovery of some or all of the hostages by months, if not years.
Recent large demonstrations in Israeli streets demanding such a deal or Mr. Netanyahu’s ouster could turn violent and anarchic. And any future attack on Rafah could require the call-up of large numbers of Israeli reservists recently released from military service in Gaza, along the Lebanese border, or in the West Bank. In fact, the combination of these two problems – hostages and additional cumbersome reserves – could halt the attack midway and create a crisis for the coalition.
Finally, this anticipated attack, which promised the final destruction of Hamas, could even trigger an all-out war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Hezbollah had previously limited itself to attacking communities and military positions in Israel’s northern border. And although a war between Israel and Hezbollah could spark a broader regional conflict, including direct conflict between Israel and Iran, the Biden administration has been making efforts since October 7 to ensure that the United States does not get drawn into the maelstrom. We have worked hard to avoid this conflict.
However, despite these strong reasons for withdrawal, Israel must accept Rafah if it wants to destroy Hamas as a military and governing organization. And for Israel, the potential consequences outweigh many of the risks.
If Hamas can take control of Rafah and the southern districts of Gaza, where thousands of fighters are believed to remain from the war, it will gradually rearm through the tunnels connecting the Strip and Sinai and soon project its forces north. It is possible to encircle most areas. Or the entire strip, many analysts think.
Above all, Israel’s failure to capture Rafah and crush the last organized military wing of Hamas and its governing structure marks Israel in the eyes of its enemies as a defeated, weak state and the next potential attacker. It will appear as easy prey. Paradoxically, the sight of a weakened Israel, similar to the Rafah attack, could tempt Hezbollah to bet on all-out war.
The possibility that foreign forces (Emirati and Saudi) or Palestinian Authority/Fataha police could replace Israelis in large parts of the Gaza Strip raises the possibility that these forces could be accused and attacked by Hamas as agents of Israel. If you think about it, it will disappear.
In the future, a resurgent Hamas will once again threaten and possibly attack communities in Israel’s southern border areas. Most of the residents of these communities have been in internal exile since October 7, along with around 70,000 residents of border communities in northern Israel who have been displaced by Hezbollah rockets since the war began.
The Hamas invasion on October 7th raised a huge question mark over Zionism itself. Zionism was born about 140 years ago to end 2,000 years of humiliation and oppression of Jews at the hands of Gentiles, and to finally provide a safe haven for Jews.
Allowing Hamas, which has suffered so much damage, to emerge victorious now would highlight Zionism’s critical failure. And critics of peace with Israel in the Arab and Muslim world (Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco have also made peace) may find the courage to reject such a relationship. do not have.
Nearly 100 years of conflict with Arab states and terrorism, culminating in the October 7th Hamas atrocities, have led to Israel being considered by Jews to be certainly the least safe place on earth at this time. proves that it can be done. An invasion of Rafah is essential to eliminating Hamas and restoring security. You don’t have to like Benjamin Netanyahu to see that.
Benny Morris is professor emeritus of Middle East history at Ben-Gurion University and author of 1948: A History of the First Arab-Israeli War.
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